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Above-trend growth at full capacity is not "normal," just as recession is not "normal," so it's not quite so clear-cut.  Economies growing too fast will chew through their spare capacity rapidly.  That's what pushes labor markets into causing inflation.  Spare capacity is gone, so companies begin poaching workers from their competitors, or they attempt to bring, for example, older workers back from retirement.  In the end, wages rise, which is what we've begun seeing, as I understand it, in America over hte nine months or so.  With spare capacity gone, companies cannot expand to meet the new level of demand, which inevitably causes inflation and higher interest rates.  The process goes on.  Sometimes it leads to recession, while other times it leads to a slowdown and eventually a return to strong expansion, as we've seen over the last year or two in Britain.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:12:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Above-trend growth at full capacity is not "normal,"

That's why you're not an academic economist any longer ;-)

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:13:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too true, mi amigo, too true.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:23:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can I at least play one on tv, though?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:27:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can have a syndicated column on a blog.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:32:29 AM EST
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Good point.  Can get away with more outrageous stuff on the blogs, anyway.  To Hell with those prudes on CNN.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:37:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Drew J Jones the next Brad DeLong? Next on CNN.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Might actually be the one big story less worthy of coverage than Anna Nicole Smith, but, hey, it certainly beats the American Idol route.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:46:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't look nearly Aryan enough to be a CNN anchor, Mig.  Get off the set, and make way.  I'm sure they've got a blond chick lying around somewhere to take over.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 07:16:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(And, with that, away goes any hope of Drew appearing on CNN.)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 07:18:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now, is the business cycle normal or not? In that case, above-average growth in the expansion phase is a normal part of a normal process, but then so is recession. As ATinNM put it last night,
One of the more amusing aspects of the Global Financial Market is the bewilderment of the participants when they discover markets go down as well as up.


"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:36:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The entire use of the word "normal" makes no sense to me.  Business cycles are normal, because markets are not perfect.  Factors don't adjust immediately.  As I've pointed out, the 2001 crash was not, technically, a recession, since we never had two consecutive quarters of contraction.  (Why, by the way, do my fellow economists insist on calling it "negative growth"?  Is that anything like "jumbo shrimp"?)  And that's, obviously very odd looking at history.  Same story in Britain.  Yes, I'd say that above-average growth is certainly a normal part of a normal process.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:44:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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