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Interesting graph, and a little complicated.  Just to make sure I am reading it right?,,,,:  It seems to show that in Paris, housing became more affordable in the early 1990's, housing being measured as a ratio of appartment prices to disposable income.  The ratio fell steadily from 1990 to 1996.  Then leveled off in 1996 to 1998.  And it has been climbing very steadily from 1998 to 2005, with very large increases in 2004 and 2005.  It's a little hard to read the scale, but it would appear the price index was something like 130 in 2003 and 165 in 2005, which would say the "affordability index" increased 27% over that two year period.

Is that your interpretation?

by wchurchill on Sat Mar 3rd, 2007 at 12:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.

Will the market bear a drop in people willing to purchase in Paris? It's beginning to be very hard buying in Paris.

I know that where I work - IT engineers in a large bank, couples can't buy a two bedroom apartment in Paris.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Mar 3rd, 2007 at 04:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it true that a lot of people rent in Paris rather than buy.  I don't know a lot of people who live in central Paris, but the ones that I do rent.  I was under the impression that they were in appartments that were to some degree rent controlled, so there is great incentive for them to stay in their place.

What a wonderful city, of course.  I can understand how prices would be bid up there.  But of course it's a huge problem if you work there to not have affordable housing.

by wchurchill on Sat Mar 3rd, 2007 at 05:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is some sort of rent control - rent cannot rise higher than a government statistic on construction prices, for a length of 3 years.

Also, renters are very thouroughly protected by law - it's impossible to evict a renter unless at the end of a 3 years term, and then the owner must warn 6 months beforehand.

Central Paris is not much attractive to children, and thus not attractive to buyers - most are likely to end up living in the suburbs or the rest of France when they get children.

The big problem in Paris is that Paris "intra muros", which is the size of Manhattan in a New York -sized city, is the only part that is well connected with mass transit. So the suburb are not very attractive.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Mar 3rd, 2007 at 06:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you working for BNP Paribas by any chance? (I am :).
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 02:37:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope, I work for the one which is red, black and rising :) (Although the amount of IT types going from BNP to SG and back, or to CaLyon, is impressive, considering that IT knowledge is not very bank-specific...)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 05:59:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The salient feature of the graph is that it took a year for the volumes to collapse by 50% but seven years after that for the price level to go down from about 170 to about 100, where it hit maximum volume.

Another feature of the graph is that it goes mostly counter-clockwise [as expected, if you think about it: volume increase -> price growth -> volume decrease -> price decrease] and that when it goes up or to the left it can do it straight, and [the first point I raised] quite fast in the case of going left [rapid contraction at constant price, halting expansion and price decline, sustained price growth at maximum capacity].

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 04:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to me the salient point is it's pretty darn expensive today to live in Paris or London (see Jerome's charts below).  It's interesting that his affordability index shows things are much more affordable in the States.  That has usually seemed true to me.  When I shop for groceries or clothes, it always seems to me the prices are far better in the US--not very scientific I admit.
by wchurchill on Sun Mar 4th, 2007 at 02:29:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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