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I believe it is quite bad for several reasons:
  • There are many real estate investment vehicles on the stock market, and they are "globalized" just like everything. The minute they start losing fortunes in the US they will try to salvage their valuation by realizing their profits quickly in those markets that are still overvalued.
  • The MSM are globalized too, and enforce the idea that "real estate is crashing, full stop" just because it is crashing in the US (you know, the global village thing). A large part of the bubbles is in people's psyche. They were buying because the MSM told them it was going up forever. They will stop buying the minute the MSM tells them it is crashing.
  • The impact on consumer spending and the whole US economy will be terrible. Worldwide recession will ensue, possibly civil war and a new Iron Curtain in China. This is never good for real estate.


Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Mar 21st, 2007 at 11:45:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure things are quite as globalized as all that.

In Germany at least, there has not been a housing bubble in this decade; prices in most markets have remained steady at best, or steadily deflated. It would be interesting to know what the trends are in other European countries (outside of Spain and the UK).

That said, the global liquidity bubble has manifested itself in Germany in the form of (largely Anglo-Saxon) private equity funds acquiring businesses and commercial real estate. It will be interesting to see whether the bursting of the US home equity bubble will have any knock-on effects in the locust business.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Mar 21st, 2007 at 12:33:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the point is that while the housing bubble is not global, the financial instruments associated with it have become globalised and the large banks (also German ones) are probably all exposed to some extent. If there is a credit crunch, it will be felt in Germany, too. However, because there is not a housing bubble the credit crunch won't have the same effects there as in other places.

The Spanish economy is very dependent on the construction sector and we can have a recession in our hands if things break suddenly.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 21st, 2007 at 12:38:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Click to see what hides inside bubbles...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Mar 21st, 2007 at 02:38:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most excellent.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Mar 21st, 2007 at 04:44:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
   * Worldwide recession will ensue, possibly civil war and a new Iron Curtain in China. This is never good for real estate.

Dry Humour of the Year Award.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Mar 21st, 2007 at 12:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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