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If this really is due to pollen from GM crops, 1) how does one prove the connection; 2) how does one get the GM industry and the governments to acknowledge it?

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 05:09:16 AM EST
With the lawer-friendly culture of today, we have to be extremely lucky to come up with a proof fast. On the other hand, the industry can be stopped quickly only with a tight lawsuit.

But then again, the causual web could be very complex. Say, global warming may disrupt seasonal rhythm of bees, or enhance parasyte populations. Even if GM would not be the dominant reason most likely, the thinking has to be changed from "Is it disastrous or not?" to "What is the spectrum of possibilities?".

CCD can be a prime wake-up example that people do have a tremendously bad impact (asif the examples of Aral Sea and ozone hole could not be enough). The implicit but comfortable dogma that we can cause nothing globally catastrophic has to be shatered.

by das monde on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 05:55:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Worldwide crop failure within 4 years seems like a pretty fucking grand way to shatter the myth.

But you have to get people to believe the explanation. Otherwise they'll just say "the market will provide genetically engineered resistant honeybees".

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:00:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How critical are bees to the pollination process of crops? They're by no means the only pollinators around.

Corn wouldn't be affected at all, for a start, being wind pollinated. Isn't that true of most of the grasses?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:02:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are other pollinators, and not all crops need assistance. But if these important pollinators bees go away, the agricultural scale might suffer. The food won't be all gone, but 6 billion people could be way too many suddenly.

And then we must talk about mounting consequences of "unintended" consequences. If you intend nothing but a quick profit, that is what you get.

by das monde on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:13:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I think that grasses (corn, wheat,...) are all wind pollinated. For bee-pollinated plants, however, I gather that the alternatives to bees are often disastrously poor.

I just looked up info on the other huge-tonnage crop: Soybean plants are self-pollinating, auto-incestuous creatures.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 02:19:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We could always send out the unemployed with little brushes to pollinate the plants.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:03:49 AM EST
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I think I somewhere have seen a picture of people doing just that. I think the people on the picture looked chinese, but that does not necessarily mean it was in China. Perhaps it was apple trees.

Or was it a bad dream? Seems harder to tell these days.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 08:37:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is done in Hawaii to keep some of the plants propagating outside of greenhouses.

 

by ATinNM on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 12:50:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Inside, surely?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:00:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
through

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:08:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:09:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You may want both to prevent your plants's pollen from escaping the greenhouse, as well as having them cross-pollinated from outside.

You want to prevent propagation through the greenhouse walls, not only into or out of them.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:11:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also greenhouses are horrible places for diseases, pests, molds, fungi, & etc.  After a couple of years the most effective means to fight them is to burn the place down and rebuild in a new location.  And it is impossible to keep the place clean.  For example, the Tobacco Mosaic Virus is one nasty son-of-a-bitch and it is brought in on people's clothing exposed to cigarette smoke.
by ATinNM on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:21:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually & for real in the field!  

These are some dedicated folks.  I've seen pictures of guys dangling from ropes on a vertical seacliff busy with their little brushes.  

by ATinNM on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:14:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Non-native plants with no local pollinators?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Native plants whose pollenators have gone extinct since the arrival of humans.
by ATinNM on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:50:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the market will provide genetically engineered resistant honeybees
Inshallah...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:16:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When the market will fail.. will there be many whiners living?
by das monde on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:21:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The market already failed for many...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 11:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The burden of proof has to be diminished. The happy end hypotheses are not more credible or better based on evidence a iota - they just do not have to be "proved".

People do not have to be convinced beyond any doubt. Hell, the Iraq war was allowed very easily.

Simple cautionary logic is just not being applied - that's why it looks like non-starter. No one wishes to be good in repeating: Is it worth to give yet another few reckless project every convenience to prosper at dire risk to everyone. Would it be a really big problem if caution will make some "opportunites" more difficult?

Just look at education of kids today to see the modern mindsetting. Everything has to be fun: learning manners must be fun, spelling must be fun, math must be fun, taxes must be fun, elections must be fun. You don't have to do anything in life that is not fun! You don't have to do anything that does not benefit you immediately! You don't have to worry about anything, but your weekend! Everything you do can be (and must be) easy!

by das monde on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:45:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not diminished but shifted.

The standards for clinical and field trials keep being eroded on "efficiency" and "growth" [read: profit] grounds.

Look at REACH as a model: any chemical that is not demonstrably safe will be phased out.

It's not for people to show that GM is unsafe, but for the GM industry to show their product is safe. Unfortunately, "safe to humans" seems not to be enough in this case, but it shouldn't have been. After all, insecticides may be developed for a given parasitic species but may harm other useful ones. And biologists know this stuff.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 06:57:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Biologists have the same affect on goverment policy as Climate Scientists: none.  

Ms. ATinNM worked on antibiotic resistence transfer factors in the mid 70s.  Her lab was showing the use of Tetracyline in animal food, only used to increase the weight gain per pound of food, was creating Tetracyline resistent bacteria in the human gut.  The major researcher pissed someone off at the FDA and the lab was shut down.

Just as snark: the lab got its samples of environmental e. coli by swabing the tables of the local McDonald's.

by ATinNM on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ms ATM is my new personal hero.. if you ever get divorced.. make me know :)

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 01:56:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fun, fun, fun! Yes! Aren't fun and pleasure equivalent to utility, hence what all rational beings should attempt to maximise?

But perhaps there is some connection between making today's news (etc.) fun and making the next decade or century miserable. And perhaps I'm forgetting other non-"fun" dimensions of a life well lived.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 02:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Utility is one-dimensional thinking.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 02:53:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering multiple dimensions seems common in many social-science contexts. However, the idea that there are directions (in the sense of greater-than and less-than relationships) that do not correspond to dimensions seems less common. Mac Lane asserted that a major failing of the social sciences is neglect of the concept of partial order. The idea that unordered and (fully) ordered form a dichotomy does seem to be widespread.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 03:02:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the long run, anything important and useful should collarate with fun. That is the best guidance to keep doing important and useful things.

But it is quite fooling yourself to call everything you have to do fun. Come on, cleaning cat's corner is not the same fun as playing with mum. You clean cat's corner to have actual fun later (better smell in the room, happier and healthier cat), or rather, to keep having (perhaps diminishing) fun with the cat.

In a sense, we can bring now all desired experience to the common fun denominator because we can afford to. (So far, perhaps.) In harder times, you do things for living, not so much for fun.

by das monde on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 02:57:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But I don't enjoy fun.
(This is a failing, though.)

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 03:29:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmm... I have instincts to resist fun as well, I suppose!

Habits and prejudices can be stronger than drive for pleasure, for (mostly) good reasons.

by das monde on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 04:20:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If this really is due to pollen from GM crops, 1) how does one prove the connection

Field Biology research requires a large enough statistical universe over a broad range of climatic, weather, soils, moisture, & etc conditions.  This takes 3 to 5 years. If you're lucky.  If a research crop gets a Eatus Muchas pest infestation then you're screwed for that year and the whole data set from that location maybe hosed as you've lost the time series correlation to other sites.  Then you start eliminating and, hopefully, come-up with a systemic constant with a high (97%+) confidence factor.

2) how does one get the GM industry and the governments to acknowledge it?

Forget convincing the GM industry.  They have billions riding on their stuff and they could give a flying fart. Reducing to a previous solution we start screaming at our elected representatives, I guess.  

<rant>

What is maddening is I did a study in 1991/2 comparing open field pollenated corn with commercial seed corn.  Although the initial yield was lower (as much as 60% of the best commercial seed,) the cost/benefit was obvious for the open field corn.  First, the cost of seed was less.  Second, didn't have to purchase any more seed.  Third, the corn, over time, adapted to the specific farm's soil types increasing yield over time.  Fourth, the open pollenated corn was hardier to pests, diseases, fungi -- 'stress.'  (Thus) Fifth, the need for additional inputs (pesticides, herbicides, & etc) was reduced to as little as 25% of previous requirements, depending on the farming practices.

The GM corn is only needed because the stupid f*ckers keep planting the same g*dd*mned cultivar which was bred solely for yield dropping dead when a bird craps on it in a field that has never been rotated to another crop long enough for pests and diseases to die off, predators on those pests are eliminated by the hundred million tons of chemicals dumped on the field, and without another hundred tons of fertilizer the damn things wouldn't grow anyway as the soil minerals were leeched out in 1957 and the last micro-organism attempting to live in the topsoil was killed in 1963.  

(Only my opinion, of course.)

</rant>

by ATinNM on Thu Mar 29th, 2007 at 11:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(Only my opinion, of course.)

If it's any consolation, mine too.

The argument, btw, of the "Green Revolution" sparked by hybrid corn from the 1950s on is being used to great effect here in France to persuade farmers that, with GM varieties, they are on the brink of a second such revolution. On the basis, of course, of yields alone.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Mar 30th, 2007 at 02:53:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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