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Absolutely, people think of collapse as being necessarily catastophic - some obviously are - the sacking of Carthage, or the destruction of Native American populations.

But I think the collapse of perhaps more civilisations takes place over several generations and the fact of the collapse is probably not even apparent at the time. Rome and Greece are good examples. Successor civilisations usually adopt a considerable amount of cultural, political and social customs from the previous one. In other words, the collapse of a civilisation is often no bad thing for those involved.

There's also an issue of definition - its very difficult to say where one 'civilisation' ends and another begins there is arguably continuity between our 'civilisation' and Rome, which itself can be traced to Greek/Etruscan civilisation and so on.

by lemonwilmot (lemonwilmot at gmail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2007 at 11:01:31 AM EST
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And true collapse like in Europe in the 14th Century need not entail a "change of civilisation", as perceived by either contemporaries or by us, because the same people, the same places, and the same political entities and cultures exist before and after the event.

I think the kind of collapse by resource exhaustion as envisioned by the likes of the Limits to Growth would be more similar to 14th century Europe than to the fall of the Roman Empire.

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2007 at 11:09:09 AM EST
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No, the fall was most certainly catastrophic for many people. In Britain the cities withered, trade ground to a halt, and many people died as the rule of law (such as it was) broke down and food became much harder to come by.

The move from centralised affluence to fragmented stockades housing war bands and king-lings happened within a single lifetime, and was very hard to miss.

The closest modern equivalent would be post-Soviet Russia, with the war-bands replaced by local mafiosos. Russia had some reslience because there was something of a tradition of self-reliance and barter before everyone's pay dried up. But what happened in Russia was hardly pretty.

A similar change in the West would be much more catastrophic, because hardly anyone has similar experience of self-sufficiency, population densities are often much higher - especiallly in the UK - and most people would be in shock if they could no longer buy essentials from supermarkets.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2007 at 07:39:05 AM EST
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There was something peculiar about Britain among the provinces of the Western Roman Empire, because in other places (Spain, France, Italy) while cities did wither and population declined, the end of the Roman Empire was not catastrophic.

As for comparing a putative future collapse of The West™ to that of the Soviet Union, there's this lecture by Dmitry Orlov (I think I first got a link to that from ET, but I don't know in what thread).

"It's the statue, man, The Statue."

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2007 at 07:52:20 AM EST
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I think you're underestimating the effects. For many people it clearly was catastrophic. The earth wasn't scorched, farming didn't necessarily stop altogether, but some cities were invaded or overrun, and trade diminished drastically.

If you were a merchant or someone else in the middle classes, I'd expect that it was very catastrophic indeed. If you were one of the peasants, possibly not so much.

The ruling elites were either slaughtered or adapted to new masters - which would doubtless have been catastrophic for them too.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2007 at 08:25:21 AM EST
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For the Germanic tribes the Fall of Rome was a huge benefit.  The majority of the tribal members didn't benefit (all that much) from the luxury trade or from the wages of being a mercenary. They did benefit when they conquered and carved-up northern Italy and the south of France.

We are schooled to think the Fall of Rome was a Bad Thing. Un-privileging the Roman POV allows for a broader, better, analysis.

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 7th, 2007 at 11:26:36 AM EST
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