My prognostication capacities are not great, and often dominated by wishful thinking...

Here are what the polls say:

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

I'm sticking by guestimate as well. Mine was:
Royal: 25%
Bayrou: 22%
Sarkozy: 21%
Le Pen: 16%

Yes, thank you, I know it's a bit out there. Feel free to mock and deride me on Monday, when I'll be too busy crying to read it.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

I really hope your wishful thinking comes true...

I do think that the result matters elsewhere in Europe, as well as in America, as it is a vote, in effect, on the inevitability of "reform" and on the (strangely Hegelian and Marxist) sense that history is on the side of the neoliberals and neocons, with unregulated English-speaking capitalism the (proper and desirable) end of history.

Yes, yes, yes. I totally agree. Since the formerly socialist nordic countries have caved to the 'market', they started preaching economic liberalism to everyone else, I would hate to see the same from France. Plus, having to endure hearing the neolibs gloat. Come on France! Stay strong! They like to call it 'the sick man of Europe', sometimes I think of it as 'the last hope in Europe'...

I hope you're right, but I fear you're wrong.

My bet is more conservative:

24.5% Sarkozy
24% Royal
19% Le Pen
16% Bayrou
6% Besancenot as the first of the small candidates.

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

despite all polls, i still do not think Royal will pass the first round.

Sarko :29
Bayrou :23
Royal :22
Lepen :12

Excellent analysis, Jerome.  Thank you for pointing this out.  There are so few voices in English to explain to Americans, in particular, what is behind this fog of propaganda.  "Progressives" in the US tend to be depressingly provincial and ignorant of international affairs and it has been great to watch the Internet really begin to crack a wall in the run-up to this election.  Your contributions have been huge in that respect.

Stay optimistic, and for the record, I too feel the big surprise will be Sarkozy missing the run-off. Boy will that be a beautiful day indeed.  As the US electorate showed before, everyone prefers the real thing to a cheap knock-off.  If you want to be a cheap knock-off (Sarkozy) you'd best get the real thing (Le Pen) out of the way first.