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I'd say that at this stage a poll as such is completely worthless.  Its just the beginning of the media's two-week campaign to portray Sarkozy's victory as inevitable.  Do not feed the trolls!

That said, anyone care to post on historical finishes in first round of french presidential elections and how they relate to the eventual winner?

by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, this is what happened in the 1981 presidential election. In the first round, the incumbent Valéry Giscard d'Estaing got 28.33%, and François Mitterrand got 25.86%. In the second round, Mitterand got 51.76%, and d'Estaing got 48.24%.

According to the Wikipedia article, in that election, incumbency was a disadvantage, so I don't know whether one can draw any inferences from that election to this one.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:58:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the 1995 election, the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin got 23.30% and Chirac got 20.84% in the first round, but Chirac won the second round, 52.64% against 47.36%. In this case, the incumbent was Mitterand, which is analogous to this election.

So that's two cases in which the candidate who comes in second in the first round wins the second round.

A bomb, H bomb, Minuteman / The names get more attractive / The decisions are made by NATO / The press call it British opinion -- The Three Johns

by Alexander on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:07:02 PM EST
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