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Both electorates are likely to split. Le Pen voters will probably go half to Sarkozy, one quarter to Royal, the rest abstaining. Bayrou voters will be a lot closer to 50/50 (probably a bigger half going to Sarkozy). Royal then can count on all the other candidates of the left (the sum of their votes beng an important number, which is way too early to guess right now)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:54:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So that would be a close win for Sarkozy.

Not good indeed.

I hope Royal has some campaign momentum left, because unfortunately it looks like she's going to need it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if she is close to Sarkozy, on high turnout, she'll have momentum, because she'll be higher than expectations and common wisdom put her, whereas Sarkozy will be somewhat below.

We need the info on what the rest of the pack is doing, Bayrou and Le Pen, obviously, but also all the others - including their relative positions.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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