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PACA is right; in Ile de France, the suburban departments of the outer ring are Sarkozy strongholds; city of Paris will be for Royal (though not massively due to right-wing  strongholds in western half of the city). Greatest interest will be to see how big a margin Royal wins by in the former red-belt communes, which are what is usually meant by journalists referring to "banlieux."
by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:59:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With 99 of 100(?) départements reporting, it stands:

Sarko 30.84%
Royal 25.98%
Bayrou 18.50%
Le Pen 10.71%
Besancon 4.23%

If that one remaining is Paris and goes to Royal as you say, good news.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:16:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No. Paris goes Sarko! And that 35.07% to Royal's 31.75%.

Barring some big campaign miralce, or a deal with Bayrou, I see President Sarko....

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How could anyone who was OK with Sarkozy have not chosen him in the first round?  There is nothing ambigious about his position.  I look forward to the debate which I feel will make a big difference in the outcome.  
by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paris is right wing : the mayor is PS only because the right wingers are very concentrated in the western arrondissement.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:34:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I got that wrong in my comment upthread. I had hoped that the big turnout and strong anti-Sarko sentiment in the eastern arrondissements might have given her a plurality.

For the second round, Paris is a place where Royal is likely to pick up a larger share of Bayrou's vote, esp in the eastern arrondissements where he scored in the high teens.

by desmoulins (gsb6@lycos.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 03:00:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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