European Tribune - Comments - French election early results thread

French election early results thread | 140 comments (140 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Some interesting early information can be found on Le Temps website

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:33:28 PM EST

Re: Early results (none / 1)

So this is an early exit poll, right?

And for those who does not want to follow the link:

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    26-30 %

Ségolène Royal (PS)        23-27 %

Français Bayrou (UDF)    16-20 %

Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    11-14 %

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Update 18:45 (none / 1)

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    26-27,5 %

Ségolène Royal (PS)        26%

Français Bayrou (UDF)    19 %

Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    11-12 %

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:49:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

update numbers from le temps:

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 26-27,5 %
Ségolène Royal (PS) 26%
Français Bayrou (UDF) 19 %
Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 11-12 %

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:51:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

Another update. Looking worse...

Candidats Voix (selon LeTemps.ch)

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) 30,3 %

Ségolène Royal (PS) 25,8 %

Français Bayrou (UDF) 17,7 %

Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) 10,7 %

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 0)

i like it ;-)

Sarko has killed Lepen.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

If people are reluctant to admit that they intend to vote for Lepen in pre-election polls, why do we assume that they will be any less reluctant to admit of doing so in the exit polls? What was the last elections exit-poll forecast for Lepen relative to his final (first round) result.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:14:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

(18h50 ; chiffres de l'institut Ipsos sur la base de bulletins dépouillés)

Based on ballots picked up??

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

No, polling station that close at 18pm start counting immediately, it's all counted now in many places, results are just not "public" (not widely at least).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:19:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

Would that be in places less inclined to vote for Royal?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (michael<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:22:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

Last results are big city results including Paris. See my very partial local results above (39% Royal :).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 1)

That's Sofres apparently
They also have Besancenot as the first of the "smalls", with 4.5%

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:07:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Early results (none / 0)

That's Sofres apparently

Yeah, yet they write "diverse institutes"...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 02:57:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Another update (19:15) (none / 0)

Le Temps
Présidentielle française 2007: Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy en tête
Les tendances
(19h15, msources: instituts de sondages)
    Candidats
Voix (selon LeTemps.ch)
1.
    Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)
29,4 %
2.
    Ségolène Royal (PS)
26,2 %
3.
    François Bayrou (UDF)
18,6 %
4.
    Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)
10,8 %
5.
    Olivier Besancenot (LCR)
4,7 %
6.
    Marie-George Buffet (PC)
2,1 %
7.
    Philippe de Villiers (MPF)
2,5 %
8.
    Arlette Laguiller (LO)
1,5%
9.
    José Bové (Alter)
1 %
10.
    Dominique Voynet (Verts)
1,6 %
11.
    Gérard Schivardi (PT)
0,4 %
12.
    Frédéric Nihous (CPNT)
1,2 %
    Participation: env. 86 %
Quel que soit l'institut de sondages, CSA, Sofres, Ipsos ou Ifop, c'est le duel entre le candidat de l'UMP Nicolas Sarkozy et la socialiste Ségolène Royal qui se dessine pour le 2e tour du 6 mai.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From the polling institutes (none / 1)

Sarkozy: 25-29%
Royal 25-26%
Bayrou 16-20%
Le Pen 13-18%

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From the polling institutes (none / 1)

How good is the assumption the Bayrou voters will gravitate towards Royal and the Le Pen voters to Sarkozy in the second round?

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:47:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not good (4.00 / 3)

Both electorates are likely to split. Le Pen voters will probably go half to Sarkozy, one quarter to Royal, the rest abstaining. Bayrou voters will be a lot closer to 50/50 (probably a bigger half going to Sarkozy). Royal then can count on all the other candidates of the left (the sum of their votes beng an important number, which is way too early to guess right now)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:54:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not good (none / 1)

So that would be a close win for Sarkozy.

Not good indeed.

I hope Royal has some campaign momentum left, because unfortunately it looks like she's going to need it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Momentum (none / 1)

if she is close to Sarkozy, on high turnout, she'll have momentum, because she'll be higher than expectations and common wisdom put her, whereas Sarkozy will be somewhat below.

We need the info on what the rest of the pack is doing, Bayrou and Le Pen, obviously, but also all the others - including their relative positions.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

French election early results thread | 140 comments (140 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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