What are these exit polls based on: polling of voters leaving the ballot, or the count of precints closing early and counting fast? If the former, the hiding Le Pen voter effect still counts. If the latter, I think the rural voters first effect counts.
It would be really useful if someone could find the early exit polls of the 2002 elections. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
IIRC, it is polling of voters leaving the ballot. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes