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I won't eat before printing the latest, at 63.52% partially counted:

Sarko 30.42%
Royal 24.73%
Bayrou 18.33%
Le Pen 11.34%
Besancenot 4.38%

Extremes: 11.07%:15.45%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:36:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Small improvements, but the significant numbers (Sarko 30+, Royal 25-) won't improve much, unless the partial count is unrepresentative. 89.89% counted:

Sarko 30.46%
Royal 24.81%
Bayrou 18.31%
Le Pen 11.32%
Besancenot 4.37%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 11.09%:15.33%

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:09:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That 89% must have been a typo, it must have been 69%! New results at 75.39% give some more hope, show Royal above 25%, Le Pen and other far-right loses steadily:

Sarko 30.50%
Royal 25.05%
Bayrou 18.34%
Le Pen 11.20%
Besancenot 4.35%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 11.05%:15.07% (where I note in concert with Jérôme that Sarko can count much less on either the Le Pen or the Villiers vote than Royal can on any of the hared-to-far-left candidates')

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...however, the first second-round poll says that 75% of Le Pen voters will go for Sarko. Bayrou's voters still divide evenly.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:59:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the centrists really return to Ségo, NOW it's on the far-left to stop Sarko, it seems. But with the above numbers, it's not enough, they would just cancel out 75% of the Le Pen+Villiers+Nihous vote.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet another update is in, 80.75%, Ségo is shooting up, but this time Sarko even more...

Sarko 30.70%
Royal 25.17%
Bayrou 18.40%
Le Pen 11.05%
Besancenot 4.29%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.92%:14.81% (75% of the latter would be 11.1%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
84.96% update:

Sarko 30.79%
Royal 25.33%
Bayrou 18.48%
Le Pen 10.88%
Besancenot 4.25%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.85%:14.55% (75% of the latter would be 11.9%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:21:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
90.33% update:

Sarko 30.94%
Royal 25.51%
Bayrou 18.51%
Le Pen 10.73%
Besancenot 4.19%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.74%:14.30% (75% of the latter would be 10.7%; in the parent comment it should be 10.9)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
94.46% update - Sarko is beyond 31%, difference is down to 5.37%, Le Pen still slides fast but won't be under 10%:

Sarko 31.01%
Royal 25.64%
Bayrou 18.54%
Le Pen 10.63%
Besancenot 4.15%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.70%:14.13% (75% of the latter would be 10.6%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Soon it's over. 97.57% update, Sarko-Royal (now 5.31%) won't go under 5% either:

Sarko 31.06%
Royal 25.75%
Bayrou 18.53%
Le Pen 10.57%
Besancenot 4.13%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.65%:14.01% (75% of the latter would be 10.5%)


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:27:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still expect Sarko to win the presidency, but hope dies last. As many others pointed out, it will be about the center (Bayrou) voters in the next two weeks. If FN voters stay at home, it could still become a very, very tight race.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:19:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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