Le Pen is out, but he has successfully moved the Overton window to the Right, and given Sarkozy a chance to unite centrists and extremists. Sarkozy can capture some of the Pen-ites by throwing them just enough red meat on immigration not to alarm the centrists, who will be happy to delude themselves that he's a not really a thug - especially given his strong media support. So he has a chance to unite the Right behind him. (Even if it's for spurious reasons - but then isn't it always?)

Royal's position is very weak. She's still the underdog and although she's done well, it's not well enough to put her over the top. The Left is always more fractious and disunited than the Right, and there will be far-Left elements who see her as indistinguishable from Sarkozy. Meanwhile, with her talk of change, she looks like an extremist to many of the centrists. She may get some of the Pen-ites, but I can't see her getting enough of them to win.

It's a very bad position for her to be in, because she doesn't have a strong and united base to rely on, and there's very little she can do in two weeks to build one. Sarko's foundations seem more solid at this point. It's his election to lose, rather than her's to win.

It's also a depressing replay of Gore vs Bush, where Bush won by being the good 'ole boy. Sarkozy and Bush are disturbingly similar.

If it were down to me, I would be speechifying and rallying like crazy to get out the left-wing vote on an anyone-but-Sarko basis.