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That 89% must have been a typo, it must have been 69%! New results at 75.39% give some more hope, show Royal above 25%, Le Pen and other far-right loses steadily:

Sarko 30.50%
Royal 25.05%
Bayrou 18.34%
Le Pen 11.20%
Besancenot 4.35%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 11.05%:15.07% (where I note in concert with Jérôme that Sarko can count much less on either the Le Pen or the Villiers vote than Royal can on any of the hared-to-far-left candidates')

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...however, the first second-round poll says that 75% of Le Pen voters will go for Sarko. Bayrou's voters still divide evenly.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:59:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the centrists really return to Ségo, NOW it's on the far-left to stop Sarko, it seems. But with the above numbers, it's not enough, they would just cancel out 75% of the Le Pen+Villiers+Nihous vote.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yet another update is in, 80.75%, Ségo is shooting up, but this time Sarko even more...

Sarko 30.70%
Royal 25.17%
Bayrou 18.40%
Le Pen 11.05%
Besancenot 4.29%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.92%:14.81% (75% of the latter would be 11.1%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:06:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
84.96% update:

Sarko 30.79%
Royal 25.33%
Bayrou 18.48%
Le Pen 10.88%
Besancenot 4.25%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.85%:14.55% (75% of the latter would be 11.9%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 05:21:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
90.33% update:

Sarko 30.94%
Royal 25.51%
Bayrou 18.51%
Le Pen 10.73%
Besancenot 4.19%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.74%:14.30% (75% of the latter would be 10.7%; in the parent comment it should be 10.9)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
94.46% update - Sarko is beyond 31%, difference is down to 5.37%, Le Pen still slides fast but won't be under 10%:

Sarko 31.01%
Royal 25.64%
Bayrou 18.54%
Le Pen 10.63%
Besancenot 4.15%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.70%:14.13% (75% of the latter would be 10.6%)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Soon it's over. 97.57% update, Sarko-Royal (now 5.31%) won't go under 5% either:

Sarko 31.06%
Royal 25.75%
Bayrou 18.53%
Le Pen 10.57%
Besancenot 4.13%

Non-mainstream to the left and right: 10.65%:14.01% (75% of the latter would be 10.5%)


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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