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It's a bit hard to write about this very specifically and not betray any secrets, but let's say that, while we see the very same pressures for aggressive deals, I am not yet too worried for a number of reasons:

  • I'm working mostly in renewable energy. As these are investment heavy projects, once they are built, they generate money whatever else happens - so there will be a financial incentive (in addition ot the obvious ones linked to global warming and energy independence) to keep them operating, and they will still generate funds which can be used to pay debt (their main cost to bear), however slowly;

  • in addition, the likelihood of energy prices going down, even in the case of a pretty strong recession, is pretty weak. Electricity will still be needed, and its price will remain set by "low cost" producers like nuclear and carbon, the same as today;

  • my sector (project finance) is also one where there hasn't been a lot of repackaging of debt into fancy financial instruments. So if anything goes wrong, I'll be the one in charge of dealing with the outcome - together wil a small number or similarly-minded and experienced bankers. I already did that in 1998 with the Russian financial crisis (and nursed my deals then to full repayment) and expect that it can be done. It is actually one of the strengths of the financial techniques we use that the projects are more resilient in times of crises - it's their main selling point, and it makes us a kind of backwater in highrolling times (because it's an expensive strength), but some clients still value that - or simply don't have the choice.

But pain in other sectors will make the banks shy and will have indirect repercussions everywhere anyway.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 11:41:36 AM EST
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/5/19/115056/699

(including this last comment)

Thanks for your support.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:05:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
so this is expensive credit for the developers
by rootless2 on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:17:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but it is safe for them as it limits the amounts they have to put in (unless they fail to perform their technical/operational obligations).

This is a good source of funds for clients that have good projects but no enough money (or want to share specific risks, like political risk in some countries).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
High rates are only compatible with certain types of projects, no?

But I think you are doing a very old fashioned kind of banking that is inherently less profitable to the bank than large scale lending in liquid markets where risk models can replace all that tedious research.

by rootless2 on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:57:18 PM EST
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I hope central bankers, and Jean-Claude Trichet for us, will some day remember they have received not the mission of praying for "structural adjustments" and saying all day long that national politicians are stupid, but the mission of monitoring the banking system by setting appropriate regulation and oversight. (Setting short term rate is pretty mechanical these days.)

I've never understood why they don't use the reserve requirement at all, and why they let some risks being fractionned and repackaged the way they currently are without introducing stricter regulations.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:18:41 PM EST
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I think when inflation is due to asset inflation as opposed to wage inflation, banks should not raise the interest rates but increase the reserve requirement. They could even reduce interest rates and increase the reserve requirement to balance it.

If you're a monetarist and want to control both inflation and unemployment, you need two monetary policy instruments, not just one.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:24:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But at least Trichet and the ECB still keep an eye on M3, which reflects more what banks do than how wages behave.

As I wrote on the dKos thread, the tragedy of our times is that inflation has now exclusively become 'wage inflation'. Trichet was pilloried for mentioning asset bubbles and not dropping M3.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:52:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Keep an eye, but that's about it.

The only thing the ECB acts upon is rasing wages.

That's called lip service...

M3 has been out of target by a factor of around two since the creation of ECB (IIRC).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 01:11:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Higher interest rates are needed to avoid situations, like today, where lenders and investors bet on ever increasing asset prices.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 12:53:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not really. The problem is not high interest rates, but expectations of consistently high returns and overly concentrated lending. in a healthy lending market, one should see super low interest rates for no risk investments and competition among lenders to discover interesting projects. Instead we see a huge drain on borrowers with massive effort to liquidize the debts so that lenders can dump risks.
by rootless2 on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 01:02:34 PM EST
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I don't know the full scale of what you do, but it seems to me that it is not based on greed, but on understanding how a system works - and then using that system to help encourage what you believe in. A kind of moral professionality.

I have the same thing: humour is a kind of transactional method for trying to change life as you see it. I don't see what I am doing now as something to really change the world, but as something that does check how the world is - in a very small corner of the world.

From the professional point of view. I know how to produce movies and TV series to a budget, and I sort of know whether they will 'open eyes' or not. I am never sure, but I do my best. For me the best rewards have been letters or communications from people that say things like "The absurdity of what you are doing gives me hope".

That about sums it up.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 01:48:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And much appreciated.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 02:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is often forgotten today, as a result of an unhealthy media (and religion) bipolar promotion, that there is no such thing as black and white. Being human means being a shade of grey.

I think, in purely personal terms, most of us DO, internally, have a sense of black and white - but socially that is seen as a shade of grey. A negotiation between these two viewpoints is actually what society is about.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 02:30:57 PM EST
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I want to say something that may be perceived as trite or condescending (if that's how you spell it). It is not intended in that way.

I have never joined anything in the past, because I don't like people speaking on my behalf, and saying things that I don't believe in, or have not yet thought about. I'd rather fight my battles one by one, than have someone fight my battles for me using methods I do not agree with.

But in the case of ET I am happy to have ET speak on my behalf, and for Jérôme to speak on my behalf. I have never been the slightest bit ashamed of anything said here. Because if you would examine the record of what has been said about any subject, you would realise that ET is essentially transitional, in that views are being moulded and changed by interaction, rather than museified by assertion.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 02:47:38 PM EST
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Coming from you, that's high praise indeed...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat May 19th, 2007 at 07:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I expect I'll now have to be loathsome to correct the balance ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 07:23:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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