Jerome, have you sent a copy of this to the Parti Socialiste, and why didn't you send it to Segolene before the debate? Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
Sarko is winning because is prensented himself as a dynamic guys who want make changes.
5 or 10 years (presidents are often reelected) of Sarkozyms will probably wake up this bored france.
Are you saying that "a large part of the French want changes, whatever the changes" because France is "bored"? Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
i think a denounciation of his "BS" whould have deverved her as showing her as willing to keep the status quo, when a large part of the French want changes, whatever the changes.
I fail to see how exposing Sarko's drivel on "full employment" in the UK implies that no reform should be made in France, especially with respect to preparing against unfair competition in a globalizing world
He'd be winning because he is a demagogue who exploited the fears and insecurities of the elderly in a fast changing world. In fact, he would have no mandate from the active, vital population.
18-24 are always wrong, not a news, and at this moment they are lazy enough to dream only about being public workers.
AGE SR Sarko
The IFOP poll from April 28 contradicts this: Royal would win. were it not for the +65. by UnEstranAvecVueSurMer on April 29th, 2007. Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
I'd say they're likely to vote relatively more than younger voters.
the exit poll numbers (age group, Royal's %, Sarko's %):
There is now even less doubt that Sarko is the president of the retirees who were most sensitive to his security/anti-immigration propaganda. The IPSOS exit poll numbers ascribing the 24-35 age group to Sarko at 57% didn't make much sense, and the difference with this poll is so large (an 11 point difference) that one can only wonder what happened ...
If I am right that it means the elections were decided primarily by the security/immigration issues, it doesn't say much for the effectiveness of the declinist propaganda.
I note the unwillingness of the media to even mention the age divide in the vote. It seems the left should discuss this point as widely as possible before the legislatives.
One could make that case that on a nice spring day, younger voters are less likely to be at home answering the phone and presumably, an actual exit poll has a much lower margin for error since it gets a better (and larger) sample of actual voters, but simple common sense suggests an error in the IPSOS age cross-tabs.
Pure speculation and indeed false. Where did you get such figures from?
Chirac has been affraid by the leftists since May68, this period is going to an end, Sarko will be a non-ashamed Right-wing and one of the most, if not the most, important leader in Europe.
By the way, with the disappearance of Lepen, The left will find very difficult to get back in power.
It is really an new era.
I know this is going to sound heretical but I wonder if a more receptive audience would not be Bayrou's soon-to-be-established parti democrate. Whats interesting about that effort is that he's not going to have big business and big financial support -- all that money is going to toe Sarkozy's line. Bayrou's not going to have the old Giscardiens around either; they'll all be palace eunuchs in the Sarkozy state. Bayrou's party, if it gets off the ground, is going to be driven by young people with new ideas about politics, media and economics -- and a desire first and foremost to renew French democracy by changing the major institutions of French public life.
My point is that France does need reform; that much is clear from how the last few months have played out. What it doesn't need is the destruction of its public services and a radical redistribution of wealth and power to the financial, commercial and business elites.
Great work, Jerome; here and every time you write these things.
Kind of stupid: public debt level has no correlation with economic performance and public debt alone is meaningless anyway since you have assets and total debt to take into account.
I'm pretty sure Bayrou knows this, but spreading fear about debt is well too easy.
Which is what I think JG was doing in his article. So my point was that Bayrou's party, since its new, may be the best opportunity to get past "kind of stupid" economics.
