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Yes, they know liquid fuels and that's what they'll do. I agree on that.

But that they should go into power generation (wind, solar etc) except to greenwash is not reasonable. It's a completely different business.

Gaszprom might, as they have expressed interest in building nuclear reactors to reduce domestic demand for gas, so more can be exported to Germany (at greater profit as domestic prices are subsidized). But the reason German gas demand is increasing due to - that's right - nuclear phase out...

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 11:05:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And then when gas runs out, Gazprom can compete with France at exporting nuclear-produced electricity to Germany.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 11:19:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For re-export to Italy?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 01:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 12:06:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some numbers.

Of the gas used in Germany, a mere 13% was used to generate electricity in 2004 ("Kraftwerke" = power plants), giving about 10% of production. The rest is used to heat over half of German homes and by the industry.

This alone renders your point moot, but I add to it.

From 2003, total German gas consumption stabilised at around 100 million cubic metre, or 3700 PJ, or just below 1000 TWh when expressed in heat energy production. So what might be the prime motivation to look for new sources?

Supply in 2006 (including (re)export!) was 36% from Russia, 26% from Norway, 20% from the Netherlands, 16% own production -- but production in the last three is set to reduce in the coming decades, with domestic production already in a steady fall. So make your guess.

But let's also look at the electricity market -- though it's not clearly separable, newer gas plants being co-generation (also distance heating). Gas power plants gave 11.6% of total production in 2006. That's now Less than all regeneratives combined. As for growth, let's start with 2001 (peak year for nuclear -- it reduced slightly from 171.3 to 167.4 TWh, one nuclear plant was shut down so far): brown and black coal also fell slightly, while gas grew by 18 TWh to 73.5 TWh -- and wind grew by 20 TWh. At the same time, the netto German electricity export grew from 1.3 TWh to 20.0 TWh. Now make the calculation...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 01:42:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These are just statistics. As for judging present policy, I of course fault both parties in the government coalition for favouring the big electricity producers in their attempts to remain dominant on the market, with the construction of new power plants, and all parties for insufficient effort on renewable heating (while there is serious effort on further reducing heating consumption with more building insulation and cogeneration).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 01:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I further add the paradox of the current government's climate policy, which points to a shortcoming of a policy of simply setting emissions targets: even if the German electricity giants' new coal and gas power plants are built, renewables stiffled and nuclear phased out, German CO2 emissions are set to reduce -- due to new fossile-firing plants' higher efficiency than their present cousins. So Big Industry & friends in politics can sabotage a policy of the outright elimination of the CO2 producers.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 02:00:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but the phase out has hardly began yet. Demand for gas is not up yet.

When nuclear is shut down (let's pretend for a second it will really happen) it must be replaced. Until just a few years ago everyone thought the replacement should be gas. Then Mr. Russian Gas was replaced by Merkel, all the gas conflicts ensued, oil prices went up, and voila! 26 new coal plants are to be built in Germany.

On top of that, using gas for heating is just... criminal. This noblest of fuels is wasted at producing heat, the lowest quality energy one can imagine, which can be produced in at least half a dozen other competitive ways.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu May 10th, 2007 at 04:48:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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