the significant factor is how the russians would think that it effects US psychology.

Do I need to point out that if it's a matter of US psychology, we're already in an eccentric polar orbit around Planet Fa La La?

The last mass launch that I read about on exercise had special levels of preparation and managed to run to about 40% successful launch rate.

Which would apply equally to the shield, presumably.

The shield doesn't make sense as a strategic issue. It's known not to work, which effectively makes it useless. And unless the US is planning to match launch numbers - which would mean huge forests of missiles, given launch failures and kill ratios - that isn't going to change just because a few Scud-missers are parked next to Krakow.

Now if - as kc says - there's a lot more going on here that we don't know about, like nuclear tipped short-range missiles being pointed at Moscow, then we have Cuba 2.0, only this time with a certifiable lunatic in the driving seat. Which is much more of a problem.

I'd hope even BushCo would be smart enough to realise that parking short range nukes in Poland is a Very Bad Idea.

But we all know that sanity isn't a consideration for these people, so we'll have to wait and see.

And my take on the psychology of the US is that Bush wants his nukular war - a small one would do, but a big one would be better - as a final 'Look at me!' tantrum that we can all remember him by.