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But some setbacks came when Britain abandoned fixed exchange rages with its partners in 1992.

No love may have been lost there, but the fact is that Britain was forced out by Soros.

Nice article, by the way.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 2nd, 2007 at 05:12:52 PM EST
Thanks.
I know I was tempted to go down my road to how I love...
I mean despise Soros.

------------------------------ Rutherfordian RDRutherford
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1@msn.com) on Sat Jun 2nd, 2007 at 05:37:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Britain was forced out of the system because it came in at an unsustainable exchange rate out of stupid pride reasons and was not willing to make the efforts necessary to adjust.

Germany came in the euro at a too high rate for stupid pride reasons but was willing (and, this being the euro and not the EMU, forced,  barring a much bigger European crisis) to make the efforts to readjust its competitivity.

You may consider that Britain made the correct economic choice to devalue rather than to restrain wages and growth, in which case Soros whould not be "blamed" but congratulated, but either way, he was only the bringer of information, not the cause of the crisis.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2007 at 04:05:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Um. Not entirely accurate. On the timescale in question, there was no way that any policy changes were going to head off what Soros did.

Now we know, but we didn't then, that the capital flows private speculators can bring to bear are on the same order of size as those of central banks.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2007 at 06:24:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
private capital flows have an influence when there is a widespread perception that the currency is mispriced, and thus that efforts (by the Central Bank) to defend the existing rate will ultimately fail - and thus that it is a good bet to bet against them.

But that can only happen when there is such a mispricing, which comes from an uncontestable price differential, which has built up over time, as rates of inflation between countries diverge.

Soros was only the canary, or the nudge, that the pound was overpriced. Private speculators cannot overwhelm a centrla bank unless there is a real underlying reason to do so.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2007 at 07:36:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Um. no, it's not. There was a quantitative change in the environmental conditions. But if you're determined to rewrite history on this matter there's not much point in continuing the discussion.

I don't dispute that they picked the wrong price to defend. But, that's not what you said. You said they were not prepared to make the efforts to adjust, where other countries did.

I think you'll find little evidence to support that assertion over the timescale (12-18 months) that we are talking about. UK fiscal policies were tightened and recession was created. Some countries devalued and re-entered the ERM (e.g. Italy) where others did their adjusting inside the shelter of the Euro (Germany), which is a much different exchange rate issue.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2007 at 08:08:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Metatone, nice succinct explanation of what others did during the time frame.
Strange that Jerome is not concerned about the major contractions in the economy of the UK but sees the slightest hiccup in the housing markets in the USA and makes a big deal about it.

I wonder how much he would have felt if his job was lost because of the contraction in the economy due to Soros (et al).

I wonder how Jerome feels about the other canaries like Vulture Capitalists.


------------------------------ Rutherfordian RDRutherford

by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1@msn.com) on Sun Jun 3rd, 2007 at 07:54:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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