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Here is a totally different view :  only growth in the future for the oil-guzzling flying things.

Boeing: Current Market Outlook 2007

Even as you read our forecast for the next 20 years of air travel, the world around you is changing.

The Outlook shows persistent growth rates across all markets over the next 20 years.

And the pace of change will feel stronger because of the many exciting service innovations and expanding travel choices brought by competition in local markets.

     
 


The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 07:27:55 AM EST
  1. Assume infinite supply of fuel.
  2. ???
  3. Profit
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 07:29:14 AM EST
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Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 07:32:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]


The struggle of man against tyranny is the struggle of memory against forgetting.(Kundera)
by Elco B (elcob at scarlet dot be) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 07:35:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even with a global oil production in decline, the physical availability of jet fuel is not peril for at least 2 decades. It represents only a small fraction of all oil-derived products, circa 5-6%.
So, assuming people are sufficiently travel-addict to pay the price, refiners will be able to supply the air market.
On top of that, never forget that jet fuel is an arbitration product (wedged between gasoline and diesel in the distillation column), so that any demand contraction from road transport will free a significant new supply for airplanes. If alternative fuels manage to penetrate ground transportation in noticeable proportions, then air transport development may well keep the same pace.
This is really a matter of how much world middle-class travellers are willing to pay to conserve their planetary mobility. In other terms, though Airbus and Boeing predictions of air traffic growth until 2020 may look like incantations, they may not be so far from the truth, assuming final customers accept to spend more. And, believe it or not, that's what happened over the last 3 years, while in the same time the price of oil increased three-fold: growth didn't even slow down ...

------------- If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear (Orwell)
by Baikal (baikal@no-log.org) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 07:59:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, assuming people are sufficiently travel-addict to pay the price, refiners will be able to supply the air market.
On top of that, never forget that jet fuel is an arbitration product (wedged between gasoline and diesel in the distillation column), so that any demand contraction from road transport will free a significant new supply for airplanes.

Yes, but this will require more secondary processes such as cracking and reforming. Out of distillation you can only really get what's already in the crude oil mixture.

If I understand it correctly, we're running out of "light sweet" crude much faster than other kinds of oils and increasingly gasoline (and kerosene) are going to be not directly distilled but oftained from cracking of heavier hydrocarbons.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 08:06:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but this will require more secondary processes such as cracking and reforming. Out of distillation you can only really get what's already in the crude oil mixture.

Even with heavier crudes, refiners have the possibility to set up distillation so that the proportion of jet fuel in the final derived products shifts from the current 6% to at least 12% (in volume). I got it from a top-executive from Total, a few months ago.
Of course, the bill will be more expensive to do that.

------------- If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear (Orwell)

by Baikal (baikal@no-log.org) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 08:13:12 AM EST
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There's more to refining than just distillation. That's the point. Distillation is the cheap part.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 28th, 2007 at 10:15:33 AM EST
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