My point of view..as most people here know.. is that no reduction in oil demand will appear until a certain threshold is not crosse3d. then.. demand can accomodate to offer very elastically given that oil demand can be reduced just by driving less..andd slowly changing the car fleet. The demands out of private car use are really low
If we stay at 85 million barrel per day oil price can rise to 90$ or even 150 $ to curb the demand of gas as other countries develop and use oil for more basic needs.
Regarding primary energy.. nuclear, and wind will do the trick (plus coal if needed)...Oil is almsot not needed
MY only worry is that with high prices we start producing oil with coal.. that will be crazy... otherwise we will have a soft landing in liquid oil .... and governments just need to have a commodities transported via trains and railways...
Unfortunately, it could be that governments do not do even this very basic thing... producing a sharp increase in inflation..(Spain, case in point)
I hope they have it on mind.. otherwise...
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
Demand can accomodate to offer very elastically given that oil demand can be reduced just by driving less..andd slowly changing the car fleet.
If people commute to work, a lot of that demand isn't voluntary. Likewise at the moment there's almost no buy-in (if you'll excuse the marketing speak) among car makers that cheaper, smaller cars are necessary.
Interestingly I'm seeing more and more very small cars on the roads in the UK at the moment. A few years ago a Smart was a very rare sight. Now they're getting to be quite common.
There are still plenty of FUVs too though. And most advertising seems to be targetting the FUV rather than the mini-car market - even though there seems to be strong demand for smaller and cheaper among everyone who isn't an oblivious soccer mum or a raging petrol head.
More worrying is a trend towards diesel freight, away from train haulage.
it is my view.. though.. just my personal take.
