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Wind speed is all very well but it is the rain that causes the most damage and loss of life.  Oman could get 10 years worth of rain (40") in 24 hours, roughly comparable to London getting 6 meters of rain over the same time frame.

A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
by ATinNM on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 09:08:42 AM EST
Forty inches?  (For nonUSians, that's 1,016 mm.)  Um, where'd you get that number?

For comparison purposes, Katrina dumped 16 inches in the most heavily drenched areas.  Hurricane Floyd, which was considered to have produced extremely heavy rainfall and caused heavy flooding in North Carolina in 1998, produced 19.06 inches (48 cm).

The two cyclones (including Cyclone Eline) that hit southern Africa in 2000 produced a two-month maximum rainfall of 1365 mm, or 53 inches, resulting in the catastrophic Mozambique floods of that year, but I want to emphasize that that's a two month total that includes two cyclones and a number of other heavy-rainfall weather events.

So I'm not exactly saying that I don't believe your 40-inches number, I'm just a little curious about who might have predicted it, because it seems a little high to me....

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 09:33:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I, too, am curious about where this business of forty inches comes from.  This is a hurricane, and hurricanes are nasty, but forty inches is an out-of-this-world figure.  It's not uncommon to hear of snowfall on that level over a period of several days or a couple weeks.  (Think of Upstate New York last winter.)  But rainfall from a hurricane?  Difficult to believe.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 11:31:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to this forecast from The Oil Drum, most of the area will see fewer than 6 inches of rain.

The darker central area is "greater than 6in", maybe up to 10in?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 12:04:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That sounds about right.  I don't know much history of cyclones in the Pacific or the Indian, but this storm is certainly no Katrina or Hugo or Andrew.  (If this were on par with Katrina, the oil markets would be going nuts.)  That's not to say that we won't be talking about damage.  It's a hurricane.  Hurricanes, even when weak, produce considerable damage.  But storms of this sort are quite common where I'm from.  Floridians, as I'm sure some here at EuroTrib have heard, actually throw parties during storms like this.  Hell, I've been in a car during a storm like this.

The flooding, especially combined with the electricity, is the real danger.  That's where people often get killed during hurricanes.  They get electrocuted, or they drive off the road (because they can't see it) and get trapped in their cars.  My understanding is that Oman and Iran have their first-responders and militaries ready, and have evacuated the truly vulnerable areas (barrier islands and so on).  And my sense is that they'll be able to handle it.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 12:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Might this be a misunderstanding of measurements.

Perhaps they meant 40 cm?

That would be about 15 inches.

God know that the English system confounds communication with the rest of the world.  And the Brits only complicate it.  I enjoyed having a conversation with a friend who talked about some big guy they knew that must have been 15 stone.  Now there's a measure that no one but our British friends (and the Irish) understand.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 01:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
CNN


A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
by ATinNM on Wed Jun 6th, 2007 at 11:20:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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