Honestly, this situation is serious enough without histrionics.
There hasn't been a storm like this in Oman since 1977
That is just simply not true. Oman has been hit by cyclones, on average, every five years since the 1940s, when modern recordkeeping began (although there are records going back to the 19th century). There was a large storm in 2002 that resulted in extensive flooding in the southern region of Dhofar.
I linked to this document (.pdf) in yesterday's Open Thread.
Most of the storms have hit the southern part of the country, not the northeast, where this storm hit, and that does change the equation. But all this hysterical talk about this being "unprecedented" is really just unnecessary. Something doesn't have to be "unprecedented" in order to be very bad.
Having lived briefly in that part of the world, I can't imagine the construction they have there if they get hit by these storms regularly. They build on sand almost level with the sea right up to the shoreline.
As of this afternoon some neighbourhoods of Muskat are reported to be 2 meters under water from the surge. I'm guessing that's unusual.
Little information is now coming out because power and phone are knocked out. We're getting sporadic information from folks with cellphones via contacts in Europe and elsewhere reported on blogs.
I'll be glad to post something absolutely accurate once the facts become known.
And disruptions in oil operations are already being reported.
Reuters via Khaleej Times: Cyclone Gonu sweeps Oman, disrupts oil, shipping (6 June 2007)
Cyclone Gonu pummelled Oman on Wednesday, halting oil and gas exports for a second day and forcing thousands to flee the coast, but weakened as it moved through the Arabian Sea, a major route for Gulf oil shipments. The storm, which peaked to a maximum-force Category Five hurricane on Tuesday, has been downgraded to a Category One hurricane, with a maximum sustained wind speed of about 92 mph, the US military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. Oman's meteorology department said the centre of the storm made landfall in Oman around midnight and was heading northwest to Muscat, bringing torrential rains, strong winds and high waves but the cyclone was expected to dissipate on Thursday.
The storm, which peaked to a maximum-force Category Five hurricane on Tuesday, has been downgraded to a Category One hurricane, with a maximum sustained wind speed of about 92 mph, the US military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center said.
Oman's meteorology department said the centre of the storm made landfall in Oman around midnight and was heading northwest to Muscat, bringing torrential rains, strong winds and high waves but the cyclone was expected to dissipate on Thursday.
Which is why Tokyo probably will be ruined one day. Same goes for LA. Same goes for Napels. And so on...
There were people in the Netherlands that had built their houses in the storm beds of the big rivers and who were then all scorned the river flooded them in the early ninenties. And those houses were built inside the storm bed for the 25 years range.
I guess it was just damnable misfortune they put LA on the San Andreas fault and Tokyo on a triple junction.
I'm not arguing that this is not very serious, or that it is in any way "usual." I think the fact that it's so serious is all the more reason why there's no need to exaggerate.
And I did ask you not to take it personally. It's just that I'm reading all these statements everywhere about how "no cyclone has EVER entered the Gulf of Oman before" (except that at least one has), etc.
FYI, there are recent photos here.
In the tropical cyclone best tracks and the modern era of weather satellites, there is no record of such an occurrence.
the first tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, and major hurricane-force winds at that, is approaching the Gulf of Oman, to strike the eastern coast of Oman, curve northward, and make landfall on the coast of Iran.
In other words, it's the first recorded cyclone to follow the precise path that it appears to be following.
Some very good stuff in that post and the comments, btw.
??
Hurricane/Cyclone satellite tracking only went up in the sixties, but the Dvorak technique to establish intensities was not underway until the seventies. And according to those who worked with the technique have reported it was immensely tricky and subjective when it was done without additional information from buoys or air reconnaissance. One wonders how many of those were done in the Indian Ocean. (If you'd believe this PDF from the NMFC there were none in the North Indian ocean in 1983).
So yes, clearly it may be unprecedented. Since the 1970s. It is abundantly reasonable then that the media labels it Death Storm.
