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Was Malthus right? Jared Diamond seems to think that in some cases the answer is clearly yes. In Jared Diamond's book Collapse he discusses the genocide in Rwanda in a fair amount of detail. (Chapter 10 pp 311-328).

I found his argument to be disturbingly convincing. I will provide some selected quotes - of course it will not do true justice to his argument.

But modern Rwanda illustrates a case where Malthus's worst-case scenario does seem to have been right.

They [Rwanda, Burundi] are the two most densely populated countries in Africa and among the most densely populated in the world: Rwanda's average population density is triple even that of Africa's third most densely populated country (Nigeria), and 10 times that of neighboring Tanzania. Genocide in Rwanda produced the third largest body count among the world's genocides since 1950. ... Because Rwanda's total population is 10 times smaller than that of Bangladesh, the scale of the Rwanda's genocide... far exceeds that of Bangladesh

Diamond notes the work Leave None to Tell the Story: Genocide in Rwanda HRW

This genocide resulted from the deliberate choice of a modern elite to foster hatred and fear to keep itself in power. This small, privileged group first set the majority against the minority to counter a growing political opposition within Rwanda. Then faced with RPF success on the battlefield and at the negoating table, these few powerholders transformed the strategy of ethnic division into genocide.

But there is also evidence that other considerations contributed as well. Rwanda contained a third ethnic group, variously known as the Twa or pygmies, who numbered only 1% of the population, were at the bottom of the social scale and power structure, and did not constitute a threat to anybody - yet most of them, too, were massacred in the 1994 killings.

Especially puzzling, if one believes that there was nothing more to the genocide than Hutu-versus-Tutsi ethnic hatred fanned by politicians, are events in northwestern Rwanda. There, in a community were virtually everybody was Hutu and there was only a single Tutsi, mass killings still took place - of Hutu by other Hutu. While the proportional death toll there, estimated as "at least 5% of the population," may have been somewhat lower ... it still takes some explaining why a Hutu community would kill at least 5% of its members in the absence of ethnic motives.

Rwanda's average population density was 760 people per square mile, higher than that of the United Kingdom (610) and approaching that of Holland (950). But the United Kingdom and Holland have highly efficient mechanized agriculture.

By 1985, all arable land outside of national parks was being cultivated.

Kanama has very fertile volcanic soil, so that its population density is high even by the standards of densely populated Rwanda: ... rising to 2,040 [people per square mile] in 1993. ... those high population densities translated into very small farms: a median farm size of only 0.89 acre in 1988, declining to 0.72 acre in 1993. Each farm was divided into (on average) 10 separate parcels, so that farmers were tilling absurdly small parcels averaging only 0.09 acre in 1988 and 0.07 acre in 1993.

With more young people staying home, the average number of people per farm household increased (between 1988 and 1993) from 4.9 to 5.3, so that the land shortage was even tighter than indicated by the decrease in farm size... When one divides decreasing farm area by increasing number of people in the household, one finds that each person was living off of only one-fifth of an acre in 1988, declining to one-seventh of an acre in 1993.

The percentage of the population consuming less than 1,600 calories per day (i.e., what is considered below the famine level) was 9% in 1982, rising to 40% in 1990 and some unknown higher percentage thereafter.

It is not rare, even today, to hear Rwandans argue that a war is necessary to wipe out an excess of population and to bring numbers into line with the available land resources."

The survivor is a Tutsi teacher whom Runier interviewed, and who survived only because he happened to be away from his house when killers arrived and ;murdered his wife and four of his five children:

"The people whose children had to walk barefoot to school killed the people who could buy shoes for theirs."




aspiring to genteel poverty

by edwin (eeeeeeee222222rrrrreeeeeaaaaadddddd@@@@yyyyaaaaaaa) on Fri Jun 8th, 2007 at 07:23:36 PM EST
Worth taking a peek at the Rwandan population curve at wiki.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 07:12:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the population shrank 89-95 (with no clearly marked effect of the genocide in 94) and then took of again?

(same link as nanne)

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 08:09:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it getting ready for another collapse?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 10:16:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The collapse was caused by a civil war, which raged from the early 90s. I tried to find stats to back up the graph but I could find nothing at the source stated on wiki (FAO) and the UN's population stats database only has 5-yearly statistics. I don't think the graph is entirely accurate, or at least statistics derived from the IMF contradict it. You have to go with the overall picture. After 1995, it seems the population recovered quite quickly, maybe due to the return of most of the 2 million refugees (no way of checking whether and how they figure in the stats).

I don't think technological progress has been high enough in the agricultural sector of Rwanda to relieve the pressure that was there before. But maybe they figured out that genocide doesn't really function as population control.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 04:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The proximate cause of the dieoff was a civil war, but what what the systemic cause? Overcrowding?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 04:07:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I don't know if I agree with the notion of systemic causality. There is a multitude of factors. Overcrowding is one background cause, but you also have others, like the distribution of political power and economic wealth, and the development thereof. Communication technology like radio also played an important role in the dissemination of hate-filled propaganda.

I think the most interesting causes to be researched are in individual and mass psychology. What causes the majority of a society to become sociopathic? Does it learn or can it happen again?

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 04:37:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see how "the graph is entirely accurate, or at least statistics derived from the IMF contradict it":


Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 05:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IMF stats show a precipitous drop starting in 1994, whereas the graph shows a more steady decline from 1990. Thus the graph is not "entirely accurate" or at least contradicts the IMF stats, but the "overall picture" is something that can be used for the general point that killing off a lot of people is not a particularly effective way to reduce overpopulation.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jun 9th, 2007 at 06:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you just make that graph? Nice feat.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 06:34:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It takes 6 lines of R code. I should post it on the wiki.

The most time-consuming part of it was to type innthe data as the tab-delimited file from the IMF was garbled.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 08:40:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now added to the ET Wiki's R Sample Code page.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2007 at 05:00:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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