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Typically taking the less popular (on ET) view, I found The Economist article to quite sensible, even pragmatic.  And, this was my perception before reading the full version after seeing Migeru's link. The upshot is that in my view Jerome's summary is accurate and reasonably complete; I just don't agree with his conclusions about the article's tone as encouraging of action against Iran.

The article's last paragraph, in fact, can be seen as encouraging of diplomacy, as well as sanctions, and it offers a quality alternative to armed action, albeit one that I don't necessarily agree with.

Iran is obstinate, paranoid and ambitious. But it is also vulnerable. A young population with no memory of the revolution is desperate for jobs its leaders have failed to provide. Sanctions that cut off equipment for its decrepit oilfields or struck hard at the financial interests of the regime and its protectors in the Revolutionary Guards would have an immediate impact on its own assessment of the cost of its nuclear programme. That on its own is unlikely to change the regime's mind. If at the same time Iran was offered a dignified ladder to climb down--above all a credible promise of an historic reconciliation with the United States--the troubled leadership of a tired revolution might just grab it. But time is short.

I don't see a nuclear armed Iran as any worse than a nuclear Pakistan, for instance.  While Pakistan is in the "Western camp" at present, its situation as such is precarious at best.  So, I don't see the failure of diplomacy or sanctions as requiring an armed response to Iran's ambitions.  I do, by the way, believe that Iran will not stop at development of a peaceful nuclear capability and fully intends to develop weapons. To what end, no one can be certain, but it is quite possible that it will do so for leverage against Israel and the US.  But no one wins in a nuclear war and Iran is unlikely to risk one over ideology.  

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2007 at 02:13:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I do, by the way, believe that Iran will not stop at development of a peaceful nuclear capability and fully intends to develop weapons.

Is a belief enough to make a consideration of armed preventive war not mad?

To what end, no one can be certain, but it is quite possible that it will do so for leverage against Israel and the US.  But no one wins in a nuclear war

Have you considered deterrence? The exact same reason most nuclear states insist on their arsenal?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 04:32:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I would characterize persons who would seriously consider going to war over Iran's nuclear ambitions as exceptionally foolish or maybe strongly motivated by something other than what most sane people would consider reasonable cause. But I wouldn't necessarily characterize them as mad. Look at the Iraq war.  Was it the result of ignorance coupled with greed, foolish misadventure, revenge, insanity, misplaced concerns over national security, or a combination of these things?  I haven't quite made up my mind, as some have here, but I lean these days towards a combination of these things that were present in varying degrees in those who argued for war.

I guess you could say that "leverage" includes deterrence, although it will be a long long time before Iran's capabilities would be seen as constituting a credible deterrence.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Tue Jul 24th, 2007 at 11:03:41 AM EST
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