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The problem is, if you're steeped in the neo-con "political will" theory, then you can't negotiate with anyone, because that might involve "humiliating compromise." The idea that a small compromise on who blinks first about negotiations is so important as to make war preferable sounds bizarre, but seems to be what they believe.

As a result, all they can do is threaten. Since they don't (objectively) look like strong threats (US public don't seem fond of more war at this moment and all those troops in Iraq are very vulnerable if Iran is attacked) the threats are unlikely to go anywhere.

Trouble is, if the threats don't go anywhere, are The Economist and Cheney crazy enough to push for war anyway? The jury is out...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2007 at 11:16:01 AM EST
What do you mean The Jury is Out?

Supposedly The Economist represents the moneyed interests who supposedly hold Cheney's leash and would yank on it it he got out of hand so supposedly there will be no war on Iran. But since The Economist doesn't seem to be yanking the leash but actually encouraging Cheney's barking, one has to wonder...

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2007 at 11:25:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I've been known to predict an attack on Iran before and I was wrong, so it may well be that now I feel like it won't happen, I'll be wrong again.

Still, there was an optimum political moment for attacking Iran and that has passed. It may be that Cheney and Bush, not running for re-election will throw aside all popularity concerns, but I have the feeling that if they were that ruthless and efficiently focused on their goals, Iran would already have been attacked by now...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2007 at 11:28:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I thought the attack would have been last year's October Surprise, too.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2007 at 11:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
one is that they are still pushing for it - that's undoubtedly happening, and the other one is whether it will happen - the jury is still out, obviously. Thankfully, there are obstacle, not the least that the US Army would be unlikely to go along (the Air Force is an open question though), and that the Chinese have probably warned of dire consequences.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2007 at 11:38:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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