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Hum, I don't think you can compare GDP directly with international trade. You don't sell everything you produce overseas.

I also don't think that the FOREX can give you an accurate account of the value of goods traded internationally - it's mostly currency swap.

Take the US case for instance:

Imports total 190 G$/month

Oil imports stand at 30 G$/month

So oil accounts for about 1/6 of their imports. Maybe not the best example, but you get the idea.

Vencit omnia veritas.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 10:22:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interestingly enough, Cia world factbook has a chapter for "world" stating:

GDP (purchasing power parity):
GWP (gross world product): $65.95 trillion (2006 est.)

GDP (official exchange rate):
$46.76 trillion (2006 est.)

Exports:
$12.44 trillion f.o.b. (2004 est.)

Imports:
$12.09 trillion f.o.b. (2004 est.)

As to wheter or not these numbers are comparable with those previously provided in this thread, I am not sure. Definitions within economics seams to be a tricky matter.

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 10:40:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exports:
$12.44 trillion f.o.b. (2004 est.)

Imports:
$12.09 trillion f.o.b. (2004 est.)

That's a well-known disparity in the accounting. Can you believe it?

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 10:42:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seriously, since so few tax exports, and so many tax imports, its almost axiomatic that more effort will go into hiding imports from the authorities than into hiding exports.


Utsukushikereba sore de ii
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 03:25:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems we annually export goods valued at $350 billion to space aliens.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 06:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, global GDP is the sum of international trade and intranational trade. I say global GDP is 12 times the size of the oil market, and you point out that for the US oil imports are 1/6 of total imports. US GDP is about $10T

Oil imports $360B/month
Imports $190B/month
GDP $417B/month

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 10:41:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Round numbers, the oil traded in 2004 amounted to 0.5 T$.

Vencit omnia veritas.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 11:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Giving the US figures don't help too much.

We know that the US pays $ for oil, that is her currency of course. The point at issue relates to other peoples' use of the "petrodollar", and I believe that many commentators - not to mention many conspiracy theorists - are labouring under a misapprehension as to the importance of the $ for denominating oil prices.

That having been said, an unHoly Trinity of:

(a) US massive over consumption of oil;
(b) continuing growth of non-US global oil demand; and
(c) the fact of a maximum level of global oil production (whether it is called a "peak" or a "plateau" is semantics);

will IMHO lead to a breakdown (slow motion crash if we are lucky), in the current global financial system and arising out of a discontinuity in the Dollar/Oil relationship. Within 2 to 5 years, I believe.

I don't think that the charts you have kindly supplied are inconsistent with that thesis.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 10:49:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think that the charts you have kindly supplied are inconsistent with that thesis.

They couldn't, because that thesis is the whole point.

Vencit omnia veritas.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 11:09:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You clearly don't read The Economist.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 11:09:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nice to know that my intuition is occasionally supported by something more substantial then!
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Jul 30th, 2007 at 11:23:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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