5 years of massive disruption to agricultural markets will provide enough fuel to cover the increase over one year. If that's not an indictment of the uselessness - and sheer folly - of the biofuels boom, I don't know what it will take.
By the way, I have found a remedy for the Cassandra-like angst produced by the fact that we know something awful is coming but no one is listening.
Oil investing. Prices go up, but instead of moaning, I just smile widely. I see Exxon, Total and Conoco are all upp 0,3-0,4 % today, while PetroChina is up almost 1,4 %. Maybe I'll add Chevron and Shell the next time prices go down.
Does this make me a bastard or just prudent? Or a prudent bastard? Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Why am I saying this ? We are about to enter a very sharp recession. Have you noticed that some big companies worldwide started issuing profit warning last week ? (Lexmark, Aker Yards, but also some in Paper, in Aluminum, strange in a time of record commodities price, huh ? not to mention home improvement & construction companies in the US an UK ...)
"demand on debt steroids" is about to shut off real quick when the rates go up.
And we now stand at one hedge fund bankruptcy every week (200 m$ caliber). TSHTF pretty soon.
http://www.romandie.com/infos/news2/200707061532000AWPCH.asp http://www.latimes.com/business/investing/la-fi-wrap6.2jul06,1,3993332.story?coll=la-headlines-busin ess-invest Pierre
A few weeks ago I wrote that I wouldn't worry about a recession until at least two of three things happened.
And 2 is shaping quickly. Pierre
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than two million subprime adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) are poised to reset at much higher rates in coming months, worsening an already suffering housing market. [...] "In October alone more than $50 billion in ARMs will reset," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com. That's a record, according to Zandi. [...] As a result, Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), is expecting as many as 600,000 home owners will get into trouble with perhaps half of them actually losing their homes.
[...]
"In October alone more than $50 billion in ARMs will reset," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com. That's a record, according to Zandi.
As a result, Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), is expecting as many as 600,000 home owners will get into trouble with perhaps half of them actually losing their homes.
The US looks set for a rough 3 years, while Japan and Germany look more healthy. Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?
I'm not sure why the BoE raised the rates so steeply. Is it to fend off imported inflation, pumping the Sterling in the face of the foreign account deficit that is developing with the North Sea cliff ? They had to know that'd prick the bubble Pierre
you are the media you consume.
