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It also assumes a switch to electric heating and transportation.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:50:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that follows from the calculation.

In other words, the inputs to the model are the flavours of primary enrgy and their historical market shares. The outputs are forecasts of market share.

Given a forecast market share of 76% for wind in 2042, it follows that transportation and heating must be electric.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 08:52:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
mmm, we may have a case in model run amok (you know, when the model says that 253% of families own a car, etc...)

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 09:19:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you look at Marchetti's original chart, many energy sources seem to peak around 70%.

In this case the model just assumes wind is the last energy type to enter the mix and is not replaced by anything else down the line. Also, nothing is said about total energy consumption, only market share. Even optimists admit that Oil and gas will be rather scarce by 2040 and too precious to burn for energy.

The problem with nuclear fission is that (as Luis' chart shows) it seems to have peaked at 10% (possibly for political reasons), and oil at 50%.

Extrapolation is always unreliable but in this case. due to the logistic assumption, you can't have 150% of energy from wind.

Can the last politician to go out the revolving door please turn the lights off?

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 11th, 2007 at 09:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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