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Yes going from 9% to 40% in 30 years is not bad :).

For payback time, I see that no study looks at concentrated solar PV (as used for the Victoria project) energy cost. The PV cell itself is very small (but likely more hazardous components) the rest is mirror and tubes.

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed Aug 15th, 2007 at 08:18:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some studies do look at concentrated PV, check the article bruno-ken linked.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2007 at 10:22:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I couldn't find the text of the study referenced by Bruno-ken so I don't know if it's the same kind of PV concentrator than the one used at Victoria. The payback cited is under 0.7 to 1.3 year according to the table anyway.

Two other papers on the topic:

* http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~kammen/C226/8r.pdf
transporation can account of up to 19% of installation energy cost, so on site or near site production of component should matter (as market expands production site should pop up in more places).

* http://www.concentrixsolar.de/cms/upload/pdf/SCC_3_Lerchenmueller_2005_04_27_Paper.pdf
they conclude that 1.5 euros per watt-peak is within reach in case of mass production, assuming 20% load and fx=1.36 that gives 10.20 USD per installed efficient watt, not far from the data I computed.

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed Aug 15th, 2007 at 10:38:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More papers:

* http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~kammen/C226/10r.pdf
cost per kwh estimates for various solar projects

* http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/renewable/recp/pubs/booklet.pdf
energy in Australia

by Laurent GUERBY on Wed Aug 15th, 2007 at 11:07:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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