You also don't have the engineering skills base to do anything too impressive. China and India have engineers, Vietnam mostly doesn't.
Having said that I think it's more likely that China will push for a slow devaulation rather than an overnight sell-off while it develops some new markets.
A slow devaluation is going to be just as unhelpful to the US, but without the PR mushroom cloud.
The point I would simply make, and made above, is that all this talk about how the PRC will do itself in if it hastened a USD crisis is a bit overblown, and all this talk of how easily the US wriggles itself out of discomfiture in the event of a major financial crisis is a bit pollyannish for my tastes, for some of the reasons you are here enumerating.
The PRC is in a stronger position than we think, the US weaker, and the relative position of the former improves with each passing quarter. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Because so many of these Chinese firms are operating on paper thin margins, a 40% rise in cost to American customers could push them over the edge.
Consider that the series of quality issues that we've seen in the past year, may be indicative of an economy that's reached a point at which it can no longer bank on cheap labor, and being unable to increase productivity because that would require greater autonomy for workers they resort to debasing their products. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
You only have to look at Microsoft's Vista or some of the trash produced by the US car and food industries to see that you don't have to be Chinese to produce useless and dangerous rubbish.
The only difference between the Chinese and the US model is that in the US, systemic quality defects are hidden by marketing spin if they're non-fatal, and by lobbying if they're physically injurious. There's also a more direct risk of litigation.
But otherwise the common aim is to cut costs and maximise profits. If customers and workers are endangered at any point, that's only seen as a bad thing if it's discovered and made public and subsequently impacts the bottom line.
Quality systems and regulation are still quite strong in the United States. Particularly in the healthcare industry. While enforcement varies greatly, there are very strict rules about reporting in the healthcare sector. I know. That used to be my job.
If someone so much as got a paper cut from the packaging we had to file a report with regulatory agencies here in the US. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
in china you can get executed for sloppy discharge of responsibility..
their video games allow you to 'kill' corrupt officials, (and their bikini-clad mistresses).
just sayin'... ~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
