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In the same way that equity market prices will always be underpinned by dividend flows, so will property prices be underpinned by land (the major component of property) rental values.

I think that the UK property market is protected by demand for rented property, due to the restricted supply of land/property in the UK. The US is totally different in terms of over-supply, I think.

While there is already some pain in the massively growing "buy to let" sector here, a distressed over-geared investor does not have to drop prices too far before another investor steps in who is happy with the rental yield achievable.

The problem we had in the 1990's bust was caused by a recession and the fact that people who had lost jobs could not afford more than a "social" rental, never mind a mortgage. So rental values were dropping alongside property prices and could not support them through invetsment by would be landlords..

That is not the problem now, so UK prices are not, IMHO, going to crash the way they are in the US.

Nor did we reach quite the same levels of craziness in the UK in terms of credit excesses, and risk aversion / prudence has now set in big time..

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Aug 9th, 2007 at 04:48:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As long as the BTL "legal tax dodge" is still in effect, prices will stay up.

May I have a BLT instead, please?


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sapere aude

by Number 6 on Thu Aug 9th, 2007 at 12:33:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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