And remember, for stocks a shorter investment horizon than 5 years is just speculation. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Total meltdown in the US housing/credit market. I think it's fair to say that has happened.
Not quite. The meltdown has just begun: there is a lot more melting to do yet.
Much higher oil prices. We're back in the $70-80 range, so while we have come a fair bit, we're not there yet.
Higher oil prices in dollars or lower dollar prices in oil?
There are two factors at play here: one is the ever increasing non-US demand for oil, and the other is the reluctance of oil sellers to KEEP the proceeds in dollars (the transaction currency is immaterial).
Higher interest rates. There's a fair chance rates will be lowered next year.
If dollar interest rates are lowered - which they will have to be - then the dollar's decline will continue to the extent that its role as global reserve currency will come under threat.
The Dollar is between a Rock and a Hard Place.
"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
