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If I might respectfully ask those who have some clue about these things (as I myself have none) ... what happens to the AUD if the USD really tanks? I mean, tanks enough so that the whole thing starts to come undone and everyone is fleeing for a decent currency (presumably the euro).

The decline of the USD is a pain for me, as the HKD is pegged to it. When I actually had money to take from Australia to HK, the miserable A$ bought less than five Hong Kong dollars. Now that I actually have to work things the other way, of course the AUD is at all-time highs. Ripped off by fate at both ends, as always.

Sorry to vent. I can't bear it. I'm an utter loser financially, always with my money on the mangiest nag to straggle last over the line.

by wing26 on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 09:25:22 PM EST
Seems to me that there is the basis for a Wing26 hedge fund here.

Just let us know in good time where you are going to be and we'll make the appropriate trades in the currency markets ;-)

Seriously, though, it is a pain when you are stuck on the wrong end of currency moves...

A lot of $ currency pegs are going to unravel - Kuwait was the first, I think, to bin it, and although Qatar just said they were sticking with the $ peg, when you have the US military in place in your country on the scale they do, then that is persuasive.

"Dollarised" countries like Ecuador will come under serious stress: we're already seeing daft trade flows across the Colombia/Ecuador border, for instance.

As for the AUD, dunno, but I can't see it deteriorating against the $.


"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 05:01:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd expect the AUD to remain strong, as Australia's economy is strongly commodity driven, and these are unlikely to go down much, even in a US recession, as demand from emerging Asia is strong and supply constrained.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 05:34:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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