Seriously though. Jerome is of course right as regards the trend for the moment. I should buy AUD before the damn thing goes even higher. (Which means pain for me. Now, where did I put the cyanide again? ...)
But, if the USD tanks badly enough, then there is no 'consumer of last resort', and the Chinese economy tanks, and then the AUD is, presumably, worth nothing, because no one is buying any of the raw materials my home country is so eager to flog for pennies on the dollar in the interests of a decade or two of 'prosperity' ... in that event, which may yet come to pass, it would have been nice to have been able to afford some euros :(
OK, so I am a child amongst giants speaking the obvious and ought to be quiet. (It's beer night.)
Actually this raises another thing, OT but I would like to mention it. Howard has now been, I think, the longest serving PM in Australian history. And those pig bastards the Liberals will always be going on about what a great job they did with the economy.
But, of course, it isn't anything to do with them and never has been. The whole thing is to do with the voracious appetite of the Chinese economy for Australian raw materials. A blind dog on kidney dialysis and attended to by a team of drunk and negligent veterinarians could run the country with exactly the same results. Hey, even Australia's Labor Party could do it :)... as they were gearing up to do before a stupid electorate voted for a moral and indeed literal MIDGET named John Howard.
And interestingly, history actually gives us proof. In the 1970s, during the Liberal Fraser government, John Howard (the very same!) was TREASURER - the second-most important post in the land ... and the economy was, of course, utter crap. Or as my father put it (and he is a die-hard anti-communist Liberal voter who literally keeps a copy of 'Mein Kampf' by his bed): 'The bastard never did anything before (in the 70s), so I don't see why any bastard should vote for him now.'
But no. History will record 'the wonderful economic management of the Howard years' or somesuch.
In these days of globalization, it is worth remembering (for Australians, anyway) that saps who make their money on the backs of primary industry have always had their fates determined by international markets. Their governments have meant little, at least in terms of economic policy.
Anyway, again I ask your forgiveness for this. It's late, there has been beer, and I face the uncomfortable prospect of (yes, like I said above) again being screwed over by FX fate ...
But thank you for your patience and graciousness.
So I wonder just how long it will take them to ditch the damn thing when the going gets rough ... and then how long it will take the markets to find the 'correct' level for the currency. Actually, no, I don't think that will happen ... they will just peg to another currency (the euro, of course!)
But they will do it far too late, because the people that run these sorts of things are completely lacking in imagination and continually think that tomorrow must be the same as today, and that yesterday, even unto deep time, was the same as today as well... as if there was some mystical USD peg in Tang Dynasty China, before either the USD or Hong Kong even existed ... that is, it is unimaginable that there could ever be a peg to anything other than the USD, even as it approaches the value of the peso ...
But what I react to is your description (which is not uncommon):
But, if the USD tanks badly enough, then there is no 'consumer of last resort', and the Chinese economy tanks
If the USD tanks badly, China will have to change its economy, but I do not agree that it will necessary tank. China has a lot of people, why can't it consume its own production? Sure trade is necessary to get raw materials (most notably oil) that is not found in large enough quantaties in China. But that means trade with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Africa, Indonesia.
As it is now, products leave China in exchange for IOUs from US and the IOUs collect in the Chinese central bank. It is hard to see that as a necessary or even positive element in the chinese economy.
But then , I am not an economist.
And btw, asking questions is how one learn, sharing stories and observations is enriching. It is exactly what we do here. No need to apologise. A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!