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Most analysts suggest that the dollar is not undervalued against the euro

Not or now? (that is a common typo), believe it or now. ;-)

You might want to consider revising that paragraph - I find it quite confusingly phrased.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 06:47:05 PM EST
Most PPP values or other estimates of the euro dollar "fair" value usually put it in the 1.10-1.30 range, so the euro is theoretically overvalued, on a purely bilateral basis.

But of course nothing is bilateral in that relationship.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 06:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the dollar is not undervalued against the Euro

means that the dollar is fairly valued or overvalued

so the euro is theoretically overvalued, on a purely bilateral basis

and then my head explodes.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 07:09:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The euro is, if anything, overvalued, and the dollar should not go down against the euro - taking only into account the bilateral relationship.

But I expect it to go down against the euro because of the global situation, thus exarcebating its undervaluation relative to the euro and the overvaluation of the euro...

I'm editing now.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 03:19:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... trading relationship, which is what PPP values address ... but with in excess of 80%, often in excess of 90%, of exchange transactions related to the capital account, presuming that values of tradables ought to rule the roost is having the tail wagging the dog.

And for the long term fundamentals, the bulk of US real wealth seems to have been invested over numerous decades in what will be an untenable suburban settlement pattern, which, while replicated to some degree in Europe, is not replicated to the same degree, and therefore a promise from a European source to meet an ongoing obligation is a stronger long term promise than a promise from a US source of the same kind.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 07:39:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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