European Tribune - Comments - Countdown to $100 oil (46)

Countdown to $100 oil (46) - what's a dollar worth? | 42 comments (42 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

You're almost on target to have 100 diaries before $100 oil. If we can get Bush out of office before he hits Iran, there's a good chance we don't see $100 until after 2010. We're overdue for a recession.

I still think you are right overall though. Just a little early.

by HiD on Wed Sep 12th, 2007 at 07:30:55 PM EST

Unless the recession includes ... (none / 1)

... China and India, it will as likely see a slowing of growth in demand as a drop in demand ... which means, still hanging around about where we are now ... and and with no buffer production available to act as a price anchor, we only need a single exogenous shock to get from where we are now to $100.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 07:44:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unless the recession includes ... (4.00 / 2)

a US recession is a disaster for China. If we slow down buying their crap, their economy will puke.

A move to $100 is just 25% now. I agree, any big political event can make that move happen in a heartbeat.

by HiD on Thu Sep 13th, 2007 at 10:30:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Our market is not as important to China ... (none / 1)

... as all that. It may be the most important single national market, but its certainly not a majority of Chinese exports, and exports are not the sole growth driver in the current boom.

So it depends largely on whether its a synchronized slowdown with Europe and Japan. The Chinese economy will certainly continue growing if its merely the US in recession ... its post-Olympics where I would be more worried about a slowdown in the Chinese boom.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Sep 14th, 2007 at 08:07:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Our market is not as important to China ... (4.00 / 2)

Depends on how you define National.

If memory serves, the EU is a more important trading partner now to China than the US is mine de rien...

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Fri Sep 14th, 2007 at 11:32:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Our market is not as important to China ... (4.00 / 2)

... as an aside, not, that's not how I define national, hence the qualifier ... but when asking when the EU becomes a federal nation state is like asking how long a short piece of string can be ... given evolution in that direction, its a status that is most likely to recognized in the rear view mirror, and then some more or less arbitrary event will be selected as the "starting point".

... but, yes, that reinforces the point. North America is not even the largest single market for Chinese manufacturers, and export is not China's sole growth engine at this point in time.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Sep 14th, 2007 at 03:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll take the other side of that bet (none / 1)

If the American consumer cuts back sharply China will have an ugly recession. And they have a lot of structural problems that a rapid growth rate is papering over.

My gut is we'll get to see who's right pretty soon.

by HiD on Fri Sep 14th, 2007 at 05:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll take the other side of that bet (4.00 / 2)

They certainly do have a lot of structural problems ... of course, so did the US when it overtook the English economy as the largest economy in the world.

There will be some broken glass, but they can weather an unsynchronized recession in the US.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Sep 14th, 2007 at 07:25:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Countdown to $100 oil (46) - what's a dollar worth? | 42 comments (42 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

. Home
. About
. Contact
. New User Guide
. FAQ
. ET Editorial Guidelines
. Search
. Search (Google)

Username:
Password:

. Make a new account
. Reset password

Recommended Diaries

Recent Diaries

Socratic Economics XII: Utopian Government Finance
by Zwackus - May 25
209 comments

A Star is Born
by ChrisCook - May 23
23 comments

$1,000,000,000,00
0 or what we must remember
by Metatone - May 19
69 comments

The balance of anger and fear
by Frank Schnittger - May 17
44 comments

Stable pricing is to metaphysics as variable pricing is to...
by Upstate NY - May 16
8 comments

A little American intercine battling
by rootless2 - May 14
27 comments

Another NRW election
by DoDo - May 13
118 comments

Bundesrat saves PV (and loses Röttgen)
by DoDo - May 12
18 comments

The mainstream German Magazine Spiegel asks, has the US mixed ...
by Democrats Ramshield - May 10
27 comments

Short Term Climate Forces: Black Carbon, Methane, and...
by gmoke - May 9

Twenty days of Crisis for Cameron
by ceebs - May 9
22 comments

SYRIZA and the Eurocrats: a letter of intent
by talos - May 9
363 comments

French Parliamentary Elections: a look under the hood
by Bernard - May 8
59 comments

Sunday Train: The Rock Island Line is a Mighty Fine Iowa...
by BruceMcF - May 6
18 comments

Greece election day II - Election diary and info
by talos - May 6
129 comments

Greece: Election day I - some background
by talos - May 6

Why haven't we had WWIII yet?
by Migeru - Apr 30
258 comments

More Diaries...

Occasional Series

Click for full list