European Tribune

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Karl Polanyi (in The Great Transformation) states that civil disturbances in rural areas ("riots") were common in Britain before the advent of the market society in the 1800's. At the time, these were a relatively benign form of feedback to the rulers, indicating that a local problem required correction. After the transition to a market society, riots became a threat to business confidence, and hence a threat to broader interests. They were then regarded as a far more serious (and national) problem.

To the extent that Chinese society resembles the earlier British model (a resemblance which is partly a matter of mind-set), we may overestimate the seriousness of this problem.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

by technopolitical on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 02:59:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To clarify, I should perhaps make that read "...overestimate the seriousness of this problem as a threat to the stability of the Chinese state."

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 01:17:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just a thought too that in general the problems of getting together the guys to form a rebel army is much simpler when you all live in the city, then when you're on the farm.

So as the underclass is urbanized, they live in closer proximity to the wealthy, and they are amassed more easily into a truely violent resistance.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 10:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
of the sort that you get with extensive agriculture.

the chinese countryside, especially in the rice-farming south, has a higher density than most american cities. you can raise a riot pretty quickly, as has been happening with greater frequency in rural areas than urban ones of late.

it is true that if this were to link up with the cities, it'd be game over for the regime. it's easier to coexist with rural riots, as long as the food eventually makes its way in.

by wu ming on Sun Sep 16th, 2007 at 11:41:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think high-density rural areas also has greater sense of community then is often found in cities. On one hand that can be a stiffling social control, but on the other it contains the seeds for starting a rebellion.

My old history professor claimed that revolutions are generally started by one of three groups:

  • Military. They have the guns and know-how.
  • Students. Having members from middle and upper class families the police and politicians are less likely to massacre them. Generally demands freedom, democracy and firing (or reinstating) professor X. Less revolts when there are more exams.
  • Peasants. The revolution-machine of the ages. Uses farming equipment. Does not revolt during harvest.
by A swedish kind of death on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 10:35:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One thing about peasants.

Where peasants have the economic security that comes from living close to the land, and having less fear of starving in economic downturns, urban workers do not.

Peasants may thus be willing to get violent because there is less fear that they will starve if they reject the authority of economic elites.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 10:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Umm ... I thought the Chinese revolution of 1949 was the result of successful organizing of the peasantry. So history provides one counter-example to this reasoning, and in precisely the country under question.
by wing26 on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 08:15:21 AM EST
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It's always possible China will rediscover communism.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 10:36:52 AM EST
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Wouldn't that be ironic?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 10:44:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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