The Chinese can't survive on growth alone, they need mega growth of the 5%+ variety to prevent a genuine worker's revolt and political unrest. That's the real danger. That even a slight downturn in the Chinese economy provokes serious social unrest. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
And note that the leeway I noted with respect to the exchange rate is only leeway ... its not an open-ended ability to raise exchange rates without undermining the neo-mercantalist policy of discounting the external price of Chinese domestic resources.
Knustler has an especially grim view of China as the last country to get on the cheap oil express, just when the cheap oil express is coming to the end of its run. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
To the extent that Chinese society resembles the earlier British model (a resemblance which is partly a matter of mind-set), we may overestimate the seriousness of this problem. Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
So as the underclass is urbanized, they live in closer proximity to the wealthy, and they are amassed more easily into a truely violent resistance. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
the chinese countryside, especially in the rice-farming south, has a higher density than most american cities. you can raise a riot pretty quickly, as has been happening with greater frequency in rural areas than urban ones of late.
it is true that if this were to link up with the cities, it'd be game over for the regime. it's easier to coexist with rural riots, as long as the food eventually makes its way in.
My old history professor claimed that revolutions are generally started by one of three groups:
Where peasants have the economic security that comes from living close to the land, and having less fear of starving in economic downturns, urban workers do not.
Peasants may thus be willing to get violent because there is less fear that they will starve if they reject the authority of economic elites. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
but there is a tipping point with such things, and i think the oil might be what does it. that and the evolution of some form of coordination between rioters. right now strikes me as nothing so much as the riots of the early 20th century, 1905-1911ish, when the cities were taxing the hell out of farmers while concentrating all new wealth and modern infrastructure in cities for elite use. resentment, but disconnected and without an ideology to put it together.
if ad hoc unions start emerging, i think things could get interesting. if they doin't, we might simmer on for some time.
but if people can't get gas to take crops to market, a lot of things could fall apart in short order.
Of course the official Chinese trade union movement is state controlled, but even there I think that there has been significant infiltration of the state union movement much as Communists infiltrated the Francoist trade union movement in Spain.
And strikes are on the rise.
On Aug. 22, more than 5,000 workers at a mobile phone component factory in Shenzhen, southern China, struck against their bosses' attempt to increase their work hours without extra pay. Earlier in the month, 800 miners struck for at least six days in the Tanjiashan coalmine in Hubei province against what they believed to be misappropriation by the management while the mine was privatized, undercutting the miners' redundancy payments... Little wonder the standing committee of China's legislature--the National People's Congress (N.P.C.)--worked overtime on Aug. 26 to hear the first reading of a new labor law, which will strengthen the government's ability to "mediate" and "arbitrate," in a clear attempt to dampen the rising tide of workers' unrest.
Earlier in the month, 800 miners struck for at least six days in the Tanjiashan coalmine in Hubei province against what they believed to be misappropriation by the management while the mine was privatized, undercutting the miners' redundancy payments...
Little wonder the standing committee of China's legislature--the National People's Congress (N.P.C.)--worked overtime on Aug. 26 to hear the first reading of a new labor law, which will strengthen the government's ability to "mediate" and "arbitrate," in a clear attempt to dampen the rising tide of workers' unrest.
I think that viewing the new Chinese Labor law in the context of these strikes suggests that the CCP is worried that political consequences are possible from these strikes. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
I think that viewing the new Chinese Labor law in the context of these strikes suggests that the CCP is worried that political consequences are possible from these strikes.
You're right, but I think the fact that the National People Assembly issued in 2006 a report on the lack of implementation of the existing labour law and proposed a new labour law also shows there are tensions within the Chinese state apparel.
I also think the new labour law, which gives an important role to the trade unions in the negotiations will have a strong effect on the evolution of the Chinese trade unions: they will be obliged to defend the workers against the employers will probably lead them (or part of them) to distance themselves from the government, thus fostering the internal contradictions.
When, like it is currently the case in China, the society is undergoing radical sociological change (especially the rise of a middle-class) under an authoritarian regime, the emerging civil society, under the threat of repression, structures itself within the existing official organisations. This means that, today, seeds of independent trade unions probably exist within the official organisations. I think that these "seeds" will be empowered by the new role given to the trade unions by the new labour law. "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
