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Booman points out the problems with Bubble's story:
Iraq had, and has, almost no navy to speak of. It's access to the Persian Gulf is limited to a tiny slice of land in the disputed Shatt al-Arab, and the port city of Umm Qasr. Perhaps Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, had it been allowed to stand, would have enabled him, over time, to develop naval dominance of the Straits of Hormuz, but in 2002-3 that was about as likely as Ecuador seizing control of the Panama Canal. If Alan Greenspan thought there was any prospect of Saddam Hussein controlling the Straits of Hormuz then he is an idiot.

Straits of Hormuz????

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 11:53:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The only way it could make sense is if he was talking of the first gulf war (iran-iraq, 1980-88) when Saddam's push into Iran territory effectively gave him direct access to more coast line. He was still pretty far off the straits, and to think he would then turn against his western supporters and block it is far-fetched.

Remaking history, what could have happened if he did cut Iran artillery from the straits coastline, is that the US would have engaged Iran openly, the moment an Arab proxy would have deprived the mollahs of their only "weapon of mass destruction" (a blocus). But we are entirely in a work of fiction here.

May be the whole timeline gets fuzzy in his heads, see it's over three decades and he's past 80 now...

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 12:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Saddam had ever managed to get control of the Straits of Hormuz or any other strategic oil interest and tried using them against us, he wouldn't have held them long. The entire damn US Navy and Marine Corps would have sent him packing all the way back to Shatt-al-Arab.

Hey, that happened once. Remember Desert Storm?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 07:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Alan Greenspan thought there was any prospect of Saddam Hussein controlling the Straits of Hormuz then he is an idiot.

Well, yes.

There's always that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Sep 17th, 2007 at 12:44:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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