Emmanuel Todd: 'Iran is not dangerous' (but Sarkozy is) | 66 comments (66 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: It's not just the oil (4.00 / 2)

It's an interesting question whether Pakistan's nuclear capability makes them attack proof.

Re demographics, my take on it is that the demographics of Malthus' day are totally different from those we see in technologically advanced societies, particularly car-mobile and internet-enabled societies.

But then I haven't read enough to know what has been written - by greater intellects than mine - about that.

My simplistic view is that for thousands of years we had a society that was decentralised but disconnected: we are now at the zenith of a society that is centralised and connected; and that we are seeing the rapid emergence of a society that is decentralised but connected.

Within such a networked society will be created "value" - by which I mean "money's worth" rather than money - an order of magnitude greater than hitherto.

The consequences of this emergence will include the end of "middlemen"/intermediation; "profit" and "loss" and double entry book-keeping; debt and interest etc etc

And I believe this will happen: indeed HAS to happen, within a generation.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 12:47:43 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

Pakistan hasn't got a second strike capability. So with the mad logic of the cold war - à la Curtis Lemay - they are now in a more dangerous position than without nukes as a rational actor (for a given value of "rational") should now launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on them before they get a second strike capability and become impervious.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 01:56:27 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (4.00 / 4)

I don't think so. Pakistan has "non conventional" second strike capability. That is, disseminate nukes to networks of people who will ship them into the US several months or years after the first strike. I think US intelligence understands that, and also understands that if 20 nukes are shipped to the US via different routes over several years, one is bound to get through, be it in a tourist submarine or a hot air balloon...

Pierre

by Pierre on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 02:16:40 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 0)

That is why a liberal use of warheads on all possible targets is needed. To make sure you don't miss anything. Destroying all infrastrucuture which can possible transport a Pakistani weapon, like roads and bridges, is also priority.

As far as I know, the US has several thousand warheads - a few hundred should suffice.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 02:27:52 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (4.00 / 3)

Not a thousand warheads would guarantee that a territory the size of Pakistan get enough neutron to disable all nukes. The US don't know where they are. Some could be in the tribal zone or technically in Afghanistan. Some could be prepositionned in Kashmir or India for the other angle of second strike - borders are quite permeable in that part of the world...

Actually, it's not possible to rule out that some are already in the US. It's a total fuck situation: the US are toast wrt the Pak nuke. They've been for 10 years now, they just pretend it's fine and Pervez is an ally because they can't acknowledge they're fucked.

And now, AQ Khan is somewhere in Iran or SA, disseminating the blueprints everywhere. Each one of the United Arab Emirates will have its nuclear crown family jewels in 15 years, and the US still expect they can stay on top of the oil. Dream on...

Pierre

by Pierre on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 03:25:34 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

Well, I would be interested to know how sophisticated these nukes are - I certainly don't see them as being suitcase sized, for sure.

And I would be amazed if the US (and every country with a serious intelligence service) hasn't bought or otherwise got exact knowledge of where the nukes are.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 04:42:42 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

My impression is that they are sized to be carried by a F-16 fighter bomber, a few hundred kilos under a wing. Classy drop-stuff with a parachute to make up for the inaccurate fuse (France still has the same kind of shit on the active inventory).

So it's not suitcase (noone, the smallest ever made still take a huge back pack). But it can definitely go in the trunk of a SUV, the tyres will make it (take away the aerodynamic envelope). And you can still drive it to ... no wait, they want to eliminate surface trafic within miles of capitol hill, no shit, what are they afraid of ?

So it's pretty easy to keep at least a few of them moving around all the time in ordinary looking ordnance trucks. Any country on a permanent war footage like India-Pak should be expected to do just that. The west does it with subs, Russia restarted it with bombers. The poor guys still do it with a truck (big countries had trailer-launched ICBMs for that purpose at some time).

And there's no such thing as "serious intelligence service".

Pierre

by Pierre on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 07:02:01 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (4.00 / 2)

Well according to the Federation of American Scientists the warhead weights of their missiles come to 500 and 700 kg

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Sep 22nd, 2007 at 08:41:02 PM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 0)

Building such small nukes is far harder than just building nukes.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 05:28:00 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

But being a state, they have a lot of resources to throw at this. plus they have the advantage that they know that it is possible, and it is just a question of working out how.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 05:38:55 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (4.00 / 2)

You're making the assumption that Pakistan, or whoever, has nothing better to do than to refine and miniaturise nuclear weapons.

I'm not sure that is the case.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 06:15:53 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (4.00 / 2)

Is a mini-nuke as easy to build as depicted in The Fourth Protocol?

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 06:23:41 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

One would assume not, the design in the Fourth protocol is basically the same as that utilised in the Hiroshima bomb, and from what I have read to make that work took firing one half of the neuclear material at the other down a discarded 8" naval gun. If less force was used the two halves would blow themselves apart in the initial stages of the reaction causing the reaction to stop.

Later devices have relied on some form of explosive compression of a subcritical lump which is assumed to be a necessary technology to build miniaturised weapons.

However take this all with a grain of salt because I'm not a physicist with any real expertise in building these things, and much of the information in public literature is probably misleading.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 07:11:43 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

I thought the desinged involved shooting a cylinder into a sphere with the cylinder cut out, so that the two pieces can't really blow each other apart so easily.

But what do I know, I didn't even read the book, just saw Pierce Brosnan playing the Russian agent in the movie.

Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK? — The War Nerd

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 07:28:36 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

it's possible that if you dont fire the central lump in fast enough the initial reaction welds ths slug without it fully penetrating, preventing the full reaction from happening. but as I said I may be talking out of another orifice.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 07:47:57 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

No, that's exactly the problem with gun type bombs. It makes the design suitable only to U, not Pu which is more fissile and usually polluted with poison isotopes which amplify the "fizzle" effect.

Pierre

by Pierre on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 09:57:33 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

By building, you mean actually designing, and making the parts at the factory, or just putting them together after they've been made ? The latter is easy, depending on where you "cut". The explosive polyhedron for a compression bomb is on a carefully adjusted lattice, you can't rebuild it like lego, but after all it's only 20cm or so in diameter. Of course, it's also the heaviest part with the Pu in the middle, but in all it's probably less than 50 kg. All the rest is power electronics, with circuit board full of capacitors and boost convertors. You can take it apart and rebuild it in any place reasonably clean. The wire length are carefully adjusted to carry the impulsions so that they all arrive at the same time at their target point on the sphere, but all that matters is that you don't mix them up when reconnecting. This is light stuff, except for the battery which will be very high power in a real bomb (you need very high energy accumulated in HV condos, a bit like for a giant flash light, because there is no intermediate fuse: in order to have a synchronous compression, the explosives are triggered directly with an electric arc). Of course, a stripped down bomb could replace the battery with a mains supply or a car alternator.

Pierre

by Pierre on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 09:40:56 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

Well almost anything they did would be better for them than expending the resources on building miniaturised nuclear weapons, However government by penis size still appears to be relevent to those in charge.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 06:48:08 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

If it's government by penis size surely miniaturisation is not what we could expect?

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 06:51:54 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

well it's like greek stsues, smaller is better

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 07:02:25 AM EST
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Re: It's not just the oil (none / 1)

thats statues

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Sep 23rd, 2007 at 07:02:45 AM EST
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