Report of Belgium's imminent demise is greatly exaggerated By Quentin Peel About once a decade, however, the international media get briefly obsessed by the idea that Belgium is a country that is about to disintegrate, torn apart by rivalry between its Dutch- and French-speaking communities. The reports usually coincide with interminable negotiations as the two sides haggle over the formation of coalition governments, seeking to reconcile (Dutch-speaking) Flanders and (Francophone) Wallonia. Such reports of Belgium's imminent demise have always proved greatly exaggerated. But the time for such speculation has come to pass again. The four leaders of the Flemish and French-speaking Liberal and Christian Democrat parties are struggling to agree any common programme after 103 days of on-and-off talks, after the general election on June 10. If they carry on past the end of October, they will exceed the record 148 days it took to form a government in 1988. Few Belgians believe their country is about to collapse, whatever outsiders may say. Ever since the Belgian revolution of 1830, when the two language groups broke away from the Netherlands, united by their Roman Catholic religion, co-existence has been complicated. But the mutual advantages, and costs of a messy divorce, have always been seen to outweigh any benefits of separation. (...) In spite of appearances, Belgium could afford more devolution without being in any danger of dissolution. Only 23 per cent of public spending is done by the regional authorities, 62 per cent by the federal government, and 6 per cent by local councils. As for tax revenues, only 4 per cent are actually raised regionally. The rest is redistributed by the centre. Attitudes are changing. Battered by corruption scandals, and too long in power, the French-speaking Socialists are conscious of the need for economic reform. In Flanders, the population is ageing faster than in Wallonia, which may reduce the economic disparity between them. Belgian observers see two possible outcomes to the current negotiations: either a deal to put off constitutional reforms to be decided later in the life of the government, or to summon a grand coalition, including the Socialist parties, in order to have the two-thirds majority necessary to agree a new constitutional settlement. Neither would mean the end of Belgium.
About once a decade, however, the international media get briefly obsessed by the idea that Belgium is a country that is about to disintegrate, torn apart by rivalry between its Dutch- and French-speaking communities. The reports usually coincide with interminable negotiations as the two sides haggle over the formation of coalition governments, seeking to reconcile (Dutch-speaking) Flanders and (Francophone) Wallonia. Such reports of Belgium's imminent demise have always proved greatly exaggerated. But the time for such speculation has come to pass again. The four leaders of the Flemish and French-speaking Liberal and Christian Democrat parties are struggling to agree any common programme after 103 days of on-and-off talks, after the general election on June 10. If they carry on past the end of October, they will exceed the record 148 days it took to form a government in 1988.
Few Belgians believe their country is about to collapse, whatever outsiders may say. Ever since the Belgian revolution of 1830, when the two language groups broke away from the Netherlands, united by their Roman Catholic religion, co-existence has been complicated. But the mutual advantages, and costs of a messy divorce, have always been seen to outweigh any benefits of separation.
(...)
In spite of appearances, Belgium could afford more devolution without being in any danger of dissolution. Only 23 per cent of public spending is done by the regional authorities, 62 per cent by the federal government, and 6 per cent by local councils.
As for tax revenues, only 4 per cent are actually raised regionally. The rest is redistributed by the centre.
Attitudes are changing. Battered by corruption scandals, and too long in power, the French-speaking Socialists are conscious of the need for economic reform. In Flanders, the population is ageing faster than in Wallonia, which may reduce the economic disparity between them.
Belgian observers see two possible outcomes to the current negotiations: either a deal to put off constitutional reforms to be decided later in the life of the government, or to summon a grand coalition, including the Socialist parties, in order to have the two-thirds majority necessary to agree a new constitutional settlement.
Neither would mean the end of Belgium.
