Display:
I've read some discussion of Iranian anti-ship capabilities.  It boils down to how well their first sortie of missiles work - they won't get a second.  And nobody really knows how well their missiles will work against US Naval assets, because most of the technology (anti-ship and ship-defense weaponry), on both sides, has never really been used in combat before.
by Zwackus on Sat Sep 29th, 2007 at 09:48:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
íwhy do you think they won't get a second? Or that the first can't be enough?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 02:44:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Radar capabilities and such being what they are, before the second can be launched, the launch facilities will probably be destroyed.
by Zwackus on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 06:18:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the problem with that asertion is that many modern missiles are run out of disposable box launchers, and if you're launching from small boats, you don't expect them to survive, some will if the attack is successful, but it is an all or nothing attack, putting as much firepower as possible into the target area in as short a time as possible to overwhelm the defensive shield.

The big priority is to smash the command and communication system to stop the opponent from coordianting their attack, this has been the pattern of US and NATO air opperations since the Berlin wall came down, first destroy any ability for the enemy to coordinate, then remove air defence, then smash ground targets.

Interviewer: What do you believe is behind this recent increase in terrorist bombings? Helpmann: Bad sportsmanship

by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 06:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With often less than satisfying level of success. Identifying enemy targets looks good in video games (including what the military shows on CNN...), but more tricky in reality.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 1st, 2007 at 01:14:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference this time, though, is that there are US targets already within range of Iranian defense systems.  As soon as any attack is launched, there will be a brief window for the Iranians to fire at those already in-range, already acquired targets.

There is a possibility that this could be a devastating attack.  From a source who seems a bit odd, but who summarizes clearly what is alluded to in various other sources . . .

The Sunburn can deliver a 200-kiloton nuclear payload, or: a 750-pound conventional warhead, within a range of 100 miles, more than twice the range of the Exocet. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.1 speed (two times the speed of sound) with a flight pattern that hugs the deck and includes "violent end maneuvers" to elude enemy defenses. The missile was specifically designed to defeat the US Aegis radar defense system. Should a US Navy Phalanx point defense somehow manage to detect an incoming Sunburn missile, the system has only seconds to calculate a fire solution not enough time to take out the intruding missile. The US Phalanx defense employs a six-barreled gun that fires 3,000 depleted-uranium rounds a minute, but the gun must have precise coordinates to destroy an intruder "just in time."

The Sunburn's combined supersonic speed and payload size produce tremendous kinetic energy on impact, with devastating consequences for ship and crew. A single one of these missiles can sink a large warship, yet costs considerably less than a fighter jet. Although the Navy has been phasing out the older Phalanx defense system, its replacement, known as the Rolling Action Missile (RAM) has never been tested against the weapon it seems destined to one day face in combat. Implications For US Forces in the Gulf

The US Navy's only plausible defense against a robust weapon like the Sunburn missile is to detect the enemy's approach well ahead of time, whether destroyers, subs, or fighter-bombers, and defeat them before they can get in range and launch their deadly cargo. For this purpose US AWACs radar planes assigned to each naval battle group are kept aloft on a rotating schedule. The planes "see" everything within two hundred miles of the fleet, and are complemented with intelligence from orbiting satellites.

But US naval commanders operating in the Persian Gulf face serious challenges that are unique to the littoral, i.e., coastal, environment. A glance at a map shows why: The Gulf is nothing but a large lake, with one narrow outlet, and most of its northern shore, i.e., Iran, consists of mountainous terrain that affords a commanding tactical advantage over ships operating in Gulf waters. The rugged northern shore makes for easy concealment of coastal defenses, such as mobile missile launchers, and also makes their detection problematic. Although it was not widely reported, the US actually lost the battle of the Scuds in the first Gulf War termed "the great Scud hunt" and for similar reasons.

Saddam Hussein's mobile Scud launchers proved so difficult to detect and destroy over and over again the Iraqis fooled allied reconnaissance with decoys that during the course of Desert Storm the US was unable to confirm even a single kill. This proved such an embarrassment to the Pentagon, afterwards, that the unpleasant stats were buried in official reports. But the blunt fact is that the US failed to stop the Scud attacks. The launches continued until the last few days of the conflict. Luckily, the Scud's inaccuracy made it an almost useless weapon. At one point General Norman Schwarzkopf quipped dismissively to the press that his soldiers had a greater chance of being struck by lightning in Georgia than by a Scud in Kuwait.

This latter part gives support to your argument that it will be difficult to find and destroy the missile launch sites.  Even should fixed C&C facilities be destroyed, there's no reason why mobile missile launchers would not be able to find and sink US Navy assets in the coastal environment, unless the US Navy withdrew to the Indian Ocean.

by Zwackus on Tue Oct 2nd, 2007 at 06:59:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Note, this is a Russian built weapon, which is being sold widely.
by Zwackus on Tue Oct 2nd, 2007 at 07:00:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Recommended Diaries
Change I can believe in
by redstar - Jul 3
45 comments

Photography Blog No. 42 [UPDATED]
by LEP - Jul 4
59 comments

A game for reasoning on Archimedes.
by PerCLupi - Jul 3
4 comments

Odds & Ends: Russia Politics LQD Edition.
by poemless - Jul 3
14 comments

Solar Minimum : Temperatures drop
by Luis de Sousa - Jul 4
3 comments

How You Get Oil
by Crazy Horse - Jul 2
17 comments

What do you think?
by PerCLupi - Jul 3
23 comments

OPEC blames speculation
by Migeru - Jul 2
55 comments

Debates
Campaigns
Occasional Series
Countdown to $200 oil
by Migeru - Jul 2

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris - Jul 2
1 comment

Train Blogging
by DoDo - Jul 1

TOC: Socratic Economics
by Migeru - Jun 26

Germany
by DoDo - Jun 22

Agriculture
by afew - Jun 19

Anglo Disease
by Migeru - Jun 18

Most Commented threads ever
by Migeru - Jun 13
10 comments