European Tribune

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How do you manage to write so prolifically, read so widely, hold down a job, and whatever else?  It must be a super-drug of some kind.

Corn is trying to get beyond the critique of the military that they "always prepare to fight the last war". He is intelligent, and he has ample resources of information. And he is fully invested in realpolitik. The good news is that Bush and Cheney are incapable (due to events, not lack of capability of understanding) of making more than token moves in any other direction than their current path.

The bad news is the Iraq occupation, and that they may still strike Iran, as this is part of Cheney's path. As I asked in your recent related post, how do China or Russia react?

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 02:37:07 PM EST
I expect, are the only ones that can prevent an attack on Iran, by playing harball the old fashioned way - Russia by delivering modern defensive weapon systems (in ways that the US knows about), and China by threatening the US of major retaliation (like a dollar dump) if war should take place - à la MAD.

I also expect that Russia is complicit in European efforts to play the clock, trying to alternate periods of diplomatic progress and crisis, to outlast the Bush administration.

In effect, the word is containing ... the Bush administration.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 04:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China exhibited the ability to obliterate one of its own satellites, last year, as I recall.

Taking out a US satellite or two would be a durable setback to US plans.

 

by Loefing (living (at) neuf point fr) on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 06:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In effect, the word is containing ... the Bush administration.  

A reversal of America's old Soviet-containment policy.

Heh.  

by Gaianne on Sun Sep 30th, 2007 at 10:19:28 PM EST
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Yes. Except that it has to be done stealthily, while pretending that those you are containing really are your best friends. It makes for pretty schizophrenic diplomacy - and punditry.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Mon Oct 1st, 2007 at 04:00:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd like to think that's what is going on, but I'm not so sure. Sarko's speech to the foreign service was sort of worrying in this regard - a bit over the top for my taste. Of course, maybe that's part of the game.
by redstar on Mon Oct 1st, 2007 at 08:29:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I were you, Jerry, I wouldn't rely on Russia, at least (dunno about China) because:

  1. Selling to Iran modern weapon staff will inevitably lead to some harsh economic, political, cultural and God knows what else sanctions against Russia from the US and its followers (you'll find the most of the EU contries in the list, if not all). And who's gonna compensate tha loss of our money (underpaid workers, pensioners, cut of money spending on the national health, educational, cultural etc programmes)? Pennyless european lefties? We are not enough pro-homosexual, pro-NGO, pro-human rights for them.

  2. What's more, I suspect quite a huge chink of our money from our Stabilisation Fund (money we got from selling oil and gas) may be sitting happily now in the US banks and shares - see point 1 about the sanctions. On the other hand, I haven't heard that we have anything valuable in Iran (that nuclear power station doesn't count, I think we wouldn't even start messing with it now, in the more fat times).

  3. While we don't like US that much, after Nord-Ost and, especially, Beslan's massacre, any fundamentalist Islamic (or, I am afraid any Islamic) country can't be seen as a friendly one we'd want to defend in any way by the majority of Russian people.

So, both countries, US and Iran are rather evil. Doesn't it ring a bell if I say that the US looks to some extent like Hitler's Germany  (striving for economic and political world  superiority and starting wars) and Iran (and before it Iraq) a bit resembles Stalin's Russia
- communist/islamic fundamentalist ideologies - helping poor, working class, moslem brothers etc? If so, I am afraid that we are over here may become not be quite immune of playing that little lovely cynical part which the US (or even Swiss folks) played during the WW2 - to watch how two bastards murdering each other, make a lot of noise - would you please stop it and the like  for as long as our territory is untouched?

The only real enemy you, EU people, have is your unsatiable greed. So why not help yourself and start playing hardball with the US? Where are all your left MPs from your oh so fucking democratic european parlaments with the threats of the full economic blocade of the US from the EU if the stupid and mad yanks start a military op against Iran? You prefer trying to egg Russia on doing  another dangerous and silly act (remember Afganistan? Well, there was some  even if a tiny part of afgani people who did not want to strenghen American influence in the region) while yourself aren't ready to lose anything?

If you aren't ready to sacrifice anything to keep the world safe do shit up and don't give us your silly advice. We are over here quite able to give even better advice.
Er... even me, even on here... :)
Just read Helen's gonna buy some property in Bulgaria. If you manage to find one of the older diaries where she asked ETers about where's better to buy and you lot talked about France and Spain, 'twas me <smiles modestly> who mentioned Bulgaria.

by lana on Mon Oct 1st, 2007 at 06:49:10 PM EST
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chink=chunk
by lana on Mon Oct 1st, 2007 at 06:50:42 PM EST
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and shit up=shut up
by lana on Mon Oct 1st, 2007 at 06:52:19 PM EST
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Not sure who you're talking to.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Tue Oct 2nd, 2007 at 01:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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