Greeks are going to the polls in a general election, weeks after wildfires left more than 60 people dead. The main challenge to Prime minister Kostas Karamanlis and his centre-right party, New Democracy, is the socialist Pasok party, led by George Papandreou. Mr Karamanlis faced criticism over his handling of the fires, but analysts say he remains favourite to win after calling early elections. Polling stations open at 0700 local time (0400 GMT) on Sunday.
Mr Karamanlis faced criticism over his handling of the fires, but analysts say he remains favourite to win after calling early elections.
Polling stations open at 0700 local time (0400 GMT) on Sunday.
A Sikh school is opening its doors in a Paris suburb for the first time on Saturday in the wake of tougher French laws on religious dress. The special school in Bobigny was set up after secularisation laws in 2004 prevented Sikh boys from wearing their traditional turbans in class. Several boys dropped out of mainstream education in protest. The Sikh school was built by a local entrepreneur whose son was excluded from a public school three years ago. The boy had refused to remove his turban in class. The French laws ban the wearing of prominent religious symbols such as Muslim headscarves or Sikh turbans in public places like offices or schools.
The special school in Bobigny was set up after secularisation laws in 2004 prevented Sikh boys from wearing their traditional turbans in class.
Several boys dropped out of mainstream education in protest.
The Sikh school was built by a local entrepreneur whose son was excluded from a public school three years ago.
The boy had refused to remove his turban in class.
The French laws ban the wearing of prominent religious symbols such as Muslim headscarves or Sikh turbans in public places like offices or schools.
Fear of personal religious expression in the public sphere has no place in a liberal democracy, which should embrace its cultural diversity and pluralism, not try to pasteurize itself of overt religious expression through regulation and legislation. Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read or write.
Private and religious schools are free to impose any dress code. That's the solution the Sihks parents mentioned in the article have come up with: create their own private school.
A good solution for these children of immigrant families to grow up in the French society? You tell me...
The main target of the law passed a few years ago was the Muslim scarf worn by a small number of teenage girls at high school. The good souls who came up with this idea wanted to free the girls from the oppressive influence of their fathers / big brothers who supposedly forced them to wear the scarf.
Substitute the school authority to the family authority; that was the idea.
What struck me most was the obsession of mostly middle-aged men (our lawmakers) to tell young women how to dress. In the past (60s, 70s), girls were not allowed to wear pants at school, only dresses; also, many politicians wanted to ban the mini-skirt back in the days...
We are now in the early 21st century, but some things never seem to change... Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
Whilst it is certainly true that there are a number of women who wish to assert their muslim identity (we can discuss elsewhere that the more modernist and confident islam of 30 or 40 years ago wasn't so fussed about it) there are a large number of muslim women who deeply resent the cultural restrictions and burdens placed upon them. they are not in a position within their societies to speak up in their own defence, and need to rely on external "enforcements" in order to become free.
So, this isn't just simply about lawmakers making rules about how women should dress, it is about giving women the freedom to choose their presentation in the public space. keep to the Fen Causeway
The women freedom to choose their presentation in the public space is not as limited in a secular society like France as it is in more traditional Muslim countries.
You should note however, that here in France, the scarf is not always forced upon the young women in question: many of them decided to go that way against the will of their parents; often, their mother, aunts, etc.. don't and never have worn the scarf.
Speaking on TV, they sounded to me (white male, mid-forties) more like your typical rebellious teenage girl than anything else, and were often overachieving students at school which bodes rather well for their future, scarf or not. Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
Now islam, in its Saudi dominated Wahhabi form, the backward fundamentalist mode that has dominated global islam in the last 30 years, is felt to be incompatible with modern western democratic liberal ideologies, thus triggering a crisis in individual believers that suggests an either/or choice that is less determined by the Qu'ran than by politically motivated power brokers operating out of the Arabian peninsula.
It is a more subtle and interesting process, but that's the capsule version. keep to the Fen Causeway
The battle lines are being drawn, the tear gas and the placards stockpiled. France is preparing for a political war that is unlikely to be over by Christmas. Nicolas Sarkozy, the hyperactive new President, is taking on the self-proclaimed defenders of the rights of the French worker, the unions. Not any old unions either, but the railway workers, miners, fishermen, employees of the vast national electric company and many of the country's bureaucrats who, as they have proved on numerous occasions, are capable of paralysing the country. This week Sarkozy is expected to announce that he will end the generous special retirement packages enjoyed or anticipated by the 1.6 million Frenchmen and women they represent and spark the first major clash of his presidency. 'If the government has already made a decision and is going to try to impose it, then there will be a major conflict,' said François Chereque, one railway union chief. A second, Bernard Thibault, promised 'sport ... and not just on the rugby pitch'. The threats of industrial strife are not idle. The last time a government tried to deprive train drivers of the right to retire at 50 on a full wage, a three-week nationwide strike immobilised the country and forced an ignominious retreat. But Sarkozy has signalled his determination to continue with the reform. Last week he called the special pension deals, which cost the French taxpayer £3bn a year, 'a disgrace'.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the hyperactive new President, is taking on the self-proclaimed defenders of the rights of the French worker, the unions. Not any old unions either, but the railway workers, miners, fishermen, employees of the vast national electric company and many of the country's bureaucrats who, as they have proved on numerous occasions, are capable of paralysing the country.
This week Sarkozy is expected to announce that he will end the generous special retirement packages enjoyed or anticipated by the 1.6 million Frenchmen and women they represent and spark the first major clash of his presidency.
'If the government has already made a decision and is going to try to impose it, then there will be a major conflict,' said François Chereque, one railway union chief. A second, Bernard Thibault, promised 'sport ... and not just on the rugby pitch'.
The threats of industrial strife are not idle. The last time a government tried to deprive train drivers of the right to retire at 50 on a full wage, a three-week nationwide strike immobilised the country and forced an ignominious retreat. But Sarkozy has signalled his determination to continue with the reform. Last week he called the special pension deals, which cost the French taxpayer £3bn a year, 'a disgrace'.
O how I wish I were there for this... Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
it took the poll tax to get the phlegmatic brits to say 'basta', the french have a much lower flash point.
in fact i raise a glass to the french's forerunner role in showing despots what to do with their decisions.
what is it about the french?
sarko is like a cocky bantam weight taking on a truck.
it will be fun seeing him meet his come-uppance, the rate history is accelerating, it shouldn't be long... ~Government budget deficits are not nearly as dangerous as the deficits we have created in vital and complex natural systems.~ Naomi Klein.
Suspect we'll have a better idea how things will play out on Tuedsay night... Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
Don't folow UK politics closely enough (it depresses me almost as much as US politics, so why bother) to know if I should've stopped caring before then.
If anyone knows of an English-language daily generally worth the paper it's printed on, I'm all ears... Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
I stopped going there back in Iraq run-up days because they had Fisk behind a firewall. Seemed a pity the only Engligh language journalist who would right twice weekly how full of shit the Americans were and he was behind the firewall.
I went back there today, and now he isn't. Wonder when that happened. Tho' I also seem to recall stormy having mixed feelings about the man and his integrity... Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
Amid criticism from opposition parties, German Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to Germans in her weekly video podcast on Saturday, Sept. 15, to support German troops deployed in war-torn Afghanistan. "There is no alternative," Merkel said, amid continuing criticism from opposition parties, which have called for a partial or complete pullout of Germany's biggest force abroad from the conflict. She said the issue was not just the welfare of the Afghan people but Germany's own security as well. Foreign troop deployments require regular votes of approval from the German parliament. The mandates for the peacekeepers and forces backing the war against the Taliban come up for renewal in October and November. "We must not leave Afghanistan to the terrorists again," said Merkel. Instead, the German chancellor said, Afghanistan had to be helped to establish robust government institutions.
"There is no alternative," Merkel said, amid continuing criticism from opposition parties, which have called for a partial or complete pullout of Germany's biggest force abroad from the conflict.
She said the issue was not just the welfare of the Afghan people but Germany's own security as well.
Foreign troop deployments require regular votes of approval from the German parliament. The mandates for the peacekeepers and forces backing the war against the Taliban come up for renewal in October and November.
"We must not leave Afghanistan to the terrorists again," said Merkel.
Instead, the German chancellor said, Afghanistan had to be helped to establish robust government institutions.
Good to see the Warsaw Pact mentality is alive and well in a country other than Poland. Nice of the Germans to have picked an Ossi, though too bad they didn't pick one from our camp... Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
The domestic context is that the current Afghanistan mission (in a supporting role) is up for legislative renewal, and something like 2/3 of the electorate is agin it. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
But the rhetoric is quite "global war on terror," especially the intervention in a state to fight non-state actors who may or may not be there. Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
I fear neither side truly comprehends the situation. The Realos, just like interventionist liberals elsewhere, see noble goals and ignore the issue of whether they are achievable with the means at disposal, and ther allies at hand. And I'm not sure that many on the opposed side really contemplate how much in a dire straits the country is, and will be even without Western meddling. (So in effect I think the base is naive yet demands the right move.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
That's inexplicable and surreal.
Britain insists that it is safe to send failed asylum seekers back to Congo. Now a repentant secret policeman has revealed the sickening brutality that awaits returning opponents of the Kinshasa regime
His stories are as shocking as they are horrific. A former senior member of the secret police in the Democratic Republic of Congo has revealed the inside story of the regime's brutal treatment of its political enemies. This is one of the few times that a perpetrator of the violence rather than a victim of it has spoken out. Jules Waka Ndumba decided to tell The Observer the truth about the killing, rape and torture ahead of a key legal challenge against the British government's policy of attempting to deport failed asylum seekers back to the Congo. Ndumba, 40, worked as part of the personal security corps for the former president Laurent Kabila and as a secret police chief. He said it was usual for trusted officials to have more than one 'sensitive' job. Ndumba said he was involved in many acts of torture carried out at the notorious police headquarters, Kin Maziere, in the capital, Kinshasa. He said those most at risk of rapes, beatings and electrocutions at Kin Maziere are opponents of the government, both in DRC and abroad, and military deserters. Hundreds of people are tortured there every year, he said. Many of the inmates have been deported from the UK, France and Germany. Ndumba said techniques employed include: stripping inmates and beating them on the buttocks with an electric cable; bludgeoning them with a rubber baton until the skin becomes raw on the back and the soles of the feet; leaving prisoners in handcuffs so tight they cut into the skin, with hands tied either in front of them or behind their backs for up to three days; and forcing prisoners to drink large quantities of water before beating them on the stomach until they vomit blood.
Jules Waka Ndumba decided to tell The Observer the truth about the killing, rape and torture ahead of a key legal challenge against the British government's policy of attempting to deport failed asylum seekers back to the Congo.
Ndumba, 40, worked as part of the personal security corps for the former president Laurent Kabila and as a secret police chief. He said it was usual for trusted officials to have more than one 'sensitive' job.
Ndumba said he was involved in many acts of torture carried out at the notorious police headquarters, Kin Maziere, in the capital, Kinshasa. He said those most at risk of rapes, beatings and electrocutions at Kin Maziere are opponents of the government, both in DRC and abroad, and military deserters. Hundreds of people are tortured there every year, he said. Many of the inmates have been deported from the UK, France and Germany.
Ndumba said techniques employed include: stripping inmates and beating them on the buttocks with an electric cable; bludgeoning them with a rubber baton until the skin becomes raw on the back and the soles of the feet; leaving prisoners in handcuffs so tight they cut into the skin, with hands tied either in front of them or behind their backs for up to three days; and forcing prisoners to drink large quantities of water before beating them on the stomach until they vomit blood.
The UK government has argued DRC is a safe place to return failed asylum seekers and other migrants despite a warning on the Foreign Office website of a range of human rights abuses which include 'frequent reports of summary executions, widespread rape and sexual violence, banditry and forced labour'. Tomorrow will see the resumption of a court case, heard in camera at the immigration appeal tribunal, to determine whether it is safe to remove failed asylum seekers to DRC or whether all removals should be suspended because of the dangers to them.
Tomorrow will see the resumption of a court case, heard in camera at the immigration appeal tribunal, to determine whether it is safe to remove failed asylum seekers to DRC or whether all removals should be suspended because of the dangers to them.
Yea, right. AFAIK he was executed within days after being tortured for fun.
That's Britain, renditioners extraordinaire, supporter (and supplier) to torturers, friend of despots, dictators and other sundry ne'er do wells around the world. Anybody who has money and an expressed need for military might.
They make me revolted and ashamed. keep to the Fen Causeway
The mayor is a little uncomfortable. 'Could we go somewhere more private to talk?' begs Myriam Delacroix-Rolin. 'This cafe is Flemish-owned. These days things have become so sensitive. I should not be heard speaking French in there.' On Tuesday, Belgium marks its first 100 days without a government. There is every reason to believe that the Belgians, and the rest of us, will have to get used to it. The questions now are how will the divorce of Flanders and Wallonia be consummated, and what will become of Brussels, home to the EU and Nato? More worryingly, the demise of Belgium - a sticking plaster over the faultline between Europe's Protestant north and Catholic south - could make Europe a more dangerous place.
On Tuesday, Belgium marks its first 100 days without a government. There is every reason to believe that the Belgians, and the rest of us, will have to get used to it. The questions now are how will the divorce of Flanders and Wallonia be consummated, and what will become of Brussels, home to the EU and Nato? More worryingly, the demise of Belgium - a sticking plaster over the faultline between Europe's Protestant north and Catholic south - could make Europe a more dangerous place.
HILARY BENN, the environment secretary, is facing fresh embarrassment after a senior European Union official said that biosecurity at the government site blamed for the foot and mouth outbreak was a "parody". The European commission is to send officials to investigate the causes of the resurgence of the disease, which the National Farmers' Union estimates is costing farmers £10m a day. Alf-Eckbert Füssel, of the animal health unit at the European commission, said: "Last time it was clear it was an isolated incident, but this is different. Now we have to be afraid about further spread." He warned that under a strict interpretation of the rules the government-funded laboratory at Pirbright in Surrey should have been closed until it complied with EU standards. Füssel said EU investigators would fly in tomorrow to monitor attempts to control the disease and later to examine biosecurity at Pirbright, where the Institute for Animal Health, a government-funded body, and Merial, a private company, have laboratories dealing with foot and mouth disease (FMD).
The European commission is to send officials to investigate the causes of the resurgence of the disease, which the National Farmers' Union estimates is costing farmers £10m a day.
Alf-Eckbert Füssel, of the animal health unit at the European commission, said: "Last time it was clear it was an isolated incident, but this is different. Now we have to be afraid about further spread."
He warned that under a strict interpretation of the rules the government-funded laboratory at Pirbright in Surrey should have been closed until it complied with EU standards.
Füssel said EU investigators would fly in tomorrow to monitor attempts to control the disease and later to examine biosecurity at Pirbright, where the Institute for Animal Health, a government-funded body, and Merial, a private company, have laboratories dealing with foot and mouth disease (FMD).
[Murdoch Alert]
An Al-Qaeda front organization in Iraq has offered rewards to anyone who kills two Swedes behind a cartoon depicting the Prophet Mohammed as a dog, in a statement posted on the Internet. The self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq placed a bounty of at least 100,000 dollars on the head of the cartoonist Lars Vilks and 50,000 dollars on Ulf Johansson, editor in chief of the Nerikes Allehanda newspaper which published the caricature. "We call for the liquidation of the cartoonist Lars who offended our prophet," said the statement issued in the name of the group's leader, Sheikh Abu Omar al-Baghdadi. "We announce a reward of 100,000 dollars to anyone who kills this infidel criminal. This reward will be raised to 150,000 dollars if his throat is slit," said the statement whose authenticity could not be verified. The statement also threatened attacks on Swedish firms unless unspecified "crusaders" issued an apology. "We know how to force you to apologise. If you do not, expect us to strike the businesses of your major firms like Ericsson, Scania, Volvo, IKEA and Electrolux," it said. The Swedish TT news agency said Saturday that Vilks was temporarily abroad, and quoted him as feeling safe but on guard.
The self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq placed a bounty of at least 100,000 dollars on the head of the cartoonist Lars Vilks and 50,000 dollars on Ulf Johansson, editor in chief of the Nerikes Allehanda newspaper which published the caricature.
"We call for the liquidation of the cartoonist Lars who offended our prophet," said the statement issued in the name of the group's leader, Sheikh Abu Omar al-Baghdadi.
"We announce a reward of 100,000 dollars to anyone who kills this infidel criminal. This reward will be raised to 150,000 dollars if his throat is slit," said the statement whose authenticity could not be verified.
The statement also threatened attacks on Swedish firms unless unspecified "crusaders" issued an apology.
"We know how to force you to apologise. If you do not, expect us to strike the businesses of your major firms like Ericsson, Scania, Volvo, IKEA and Electrolux," it said.
The Swedish TT news agency said Saturday that Vilks was temporarily abroad, and quoted him as feeling safe but on guard.
Russian investigators arrested a former Chechen official on Thursday and accused him of organizing the contract killing of Anna Politkovskaya, the independent journalist and high-profile Kremlin critic, a Russian newspaper and Ms. Politkovskaya's former editor said Saturday. The suspected official, Shamil D. Burayev, was detained in Moscow. Mr. Burayev was once the leader of Achkhoi-Martan, one of the administrative districts in Chechnya, but was dismissed from the post several years ago. He also ran unsuccessfully for the Chechen presidency in 2003. The Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, which reported his arrest, said that he had been accused under Russian law of organizing a murder, and suggested that he had ordered Ms. Politkovskaya's killing.
The suspected official, Shamil D. Burayev, was detained in Moscow. Mr. Burayev was once the leader of Achkhoi-Martan, one of the administrative districts in Chechnya, but was dismissed from the post several years ago.
He also ran unsuccessfully for the Chechen presidency in 2003. The Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, which reported his arrest, said that he had been accused under Russian law of organizing a murder, and suggested that he had ordered Ms. Politkovskaya's killing.
Serb Sector's Hunt for Wartime Fugitives Falls Short, Bringing Calls for Change
BANJA LUKA, Bosnia -- The tip was vague but promising, like so many other recent leads that had failed to pan out. "One of the accused could be attempting to cross the border near the village of Bratunac" was the message relayed to Dragan Milosevic, chief police investigator in Republika Srpska, the Serb-governed sector of Bosnia. "The accused," Milosevic recalled in an interview, could have referred only to five Bosnian Serb fugitives charged with committing crimes against humanity during their country's 1992-95 ethnic civil war. Milosevic and two dozen of his officers proceeded to the small farming village, where they came upon a sickly-looking man in a baseball cap, walking alone on a dirt road. They recognized him as Zdravko Tolimir, a former Bosnian Serb commander who had allegedly helped lead the massacre of as many as 8,000 Muslim prisoners at Srebrenica in July 1995. "We asked, 'Are you the one we're looking for?' " Milosevic recalled in Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska. "He didn't resist. He said, 'I am the general, but don't expect me to talk to any of you. You are my enemies, the collaborators.' He still lives in the war and thinks of us as traitors. It looked like he'd been abandoned there." The May 31 arrest of Tolimir, who is accused of genocide and other crimes and will stand trial at a U.N. tribunal in The Hague, was hailed by international officials and Bosnia's Srpska government as a breakthrough in the hunt for wartime fugitives. But critics of the Srpska police force continue to accuse it of failing to pursue war criminals aggressively, perhaps at the behest of Serbia, the ethnic homeland next door. Some Bosnian Muslim politicians say Serbia is seeking to run out the clock on the tribunal, whose mandate for commencing new trials expires next year, though it could be renewed. Twelve years after the end of the war, four key Bosnian Serb fugitives remain at large, including the two most-wanted: Radovan Karadzic, the wartime Bosnian Serb political leader, and his army's commander, Ratko Mladic. The 1995 Dayton peace accords that ended the war divided the country into two ethnic enclaves and gave each the right to police itself. Now, creation of a single multiethnic police force has become the biggest stumbling block in Bosnia's quest to join the European Union. Talks among Bosnia's factions resumed this month in advance of an upcoming deadline to produce a policing agreement that can be presented to European officials this year. "I am not optimistic," Raffi Gregorian, deputy high representative of foreign parties to the Dayton accords, said when asked about the prospects for an agreement. "And that means we're on hold another year before we get the process going again."
"One of the accused could be attempting to cross the border near the village of Bratunac" was the message relayed to Dragan Milosevic, chief police investigator in Republika Srpska, the Serb-governed sector of Bosnia. "The accused," Milosevic recalled in an interview, could have referred only to five Bosnian Serb fugitives charged with committing crimes against humanity during their country's 1992-95 ethnic civil war.
Milosevic and two dozen of his officers proceeded to the small farming village, where they came upon a sickly-looking man in a baseball cap, walking alone on a dirt road. They recognized him as Zdravko Tolimir, a former Bosnian Serb commander who had allegedly helped lead the massacre of as many as 8,000 Muslim prisoners at Srebrenica in July 1995.
"We asked, 'Are you the one we're looking for?' " Milosevic recalled in Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska. "He didn't resist. He said, 'I am the general, but don't expect me to talk to any of you. You are my enemies, the collaborators.' He still lives in the war and thinks of us as traitors. It looked like he'd been abandoned there."
The May 31 arrest of Tolimir, who is accused of genocide and other crimes and will stand trial at a U.N. tribunal in The Hague, was hailed by international officials and Bosnia's Srpska government as a breakthrough in the hunt for wartime fugitives.
But critics of the Srpska police force continue to accuse it of failing to pursue war criminals aggressively, perhaps at the behest of Serbia, the ethnic homeland next door. Some Bosnian Muslim politicians say Serbia is seeking to run out the clock on the tribunal, whose mandate for commencing new trials expires next year, though it could be renewed.
Twelve years after the end of the war, four key Bosnian Serb fugitives remain at large, including the two most-wanted: Radovan Karadzic, the wartime Bosnian Serb political leader, and his army's commander, Ratko Mladic.
The 1995 Dayton peace accords that ended the war divided the country into two ethnic enclaves and gave each the right to police itself. Now, creation of a single multiethnic police force has become the biggest stumbling block in Bosnia's quest to join the European Union. Talks among Bosnia's factions resumed this month in advance of an upcoming deadline to produce a policing agreement that can be presented to European officials this year.
"I am not optimistic," Raffi Gregorian, deputy high representative of foreign parties to the Dayton accords, said when asked about the prospects for an agreement. "And that means we're on hold another year before we get the process going again."
· Economist warns of sharp downturn · Tory leader attacks Brown over crisis
Britain's house price growth will be halved next year as the global financial crisis exacerbates the impact of rising mortgage rates, according to Nationwide, the biggest mortgage lender. After the dramatic bail-out of high street bank Northern Rock underlined the impact of the American 'sub-prime' mortgage crisis on Britain's financial sector, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's group economist, said she expected house price inflation to slow to around 3 per cent next year. Thousands of anxious customers queued outside Northern Rock branches for a second day yesterday, ignoring calls for calm from the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, and the bank's management, and sparking fears of a full-blown 'run' on the bank. Speaking to Channel 4 News last night, Darling said he had been assured by the Financial Services Authority that Northern Rock was capable of meeting its financial obligations to its customers. In the first signs of political fallout from the crisis, David Cameron accused Gordon Brown of failing to rein in public and private borrowing over the last decade, saying the nation's economic growth is based on a 'mountain of debt'. Writing in today's Sunday Telegraph, the Tory leader says: 'This government has presided over a huge expansion of public and private debt without showing awareness of the risks involved.
After the dramatic bail-out of high street bank Northern Rock underlined the impact of the American 'sub-prime' mortgage crisis on Britain's financial sector, Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's group economist, said she expected house price inflation to slow to around 3 per cent next year.
Thousands of anxious customers queued outside Northern Rock branches for a second day yesterday, ignoring calls for calm from the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, and the bank's management, and sparking fears of a full-blown 'run' on the bank.
Speaking to Channel 4 News last night, Darling said he had been assured by the Financial Services Authority that Northern Rock was capable of meeting its financial obligations to its customers.
In the first signs of political fallout from the crisis, David Cameron accused Gordon Brown of failing to rein in public and private borrowing over the last decade, saying the nation's economic growth is based on a 'mountain of debt'. Writing in today's Sunday Telegraph, the Tory leader says: 'This government has presided over a huge expansion of public and private debt without showing awareness of the risks involved.
Considering that prices have risen by 3-400% in London and at least 200% in many other parts of the UK over the last ten years, there's certainly room for a correction.
http://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/2007/09/pfwoooor.html
[...] But the revealing thing was when I questioned him about yields. "Phfwooor, yields? Ha ha! No one cares about yields". "It's going up baby!". "He continued, "Take this flat here (FYI - a renovated basement studio lipsticked with recessed halogen lights, large flat screen entertainment centre and Franke fittings and Bosch turbowasher (but still shitty plumbing!) went for GBP210 a year-and-a-half ago, now its GBP405! He continued, "My mate, he bought a flat a year ago for 400, had 30k of carry for the year, and 20k of rental income and flipped it out 12mo later for 550. Yield? Who needs yield when prices are rallying like that??" "Ummm errr yes I interrupted, but, I was here in 1988 and I could swear I remember the secretary's all talking about their real estate triumphs in precisely the same language with exactly the same enthusiasm, but it too ended in tears". "It ain't gonna happen", he chimed. "At least not here. Not now, not to me. Things are different now. We've got Russians coming. It's a unique micro-climate. Everyone wants one. [insert additional reason of choice for denial here] And anyway prices HAVE kept going up, right?" He looked at me for confirmation that I couldn't give. Anecdotally, over the past few days, there seems to be a whole lot of flats empty & warehoused like that which I seen in my walks. I wonder if they are lereaged, and if so, by how much? I wonder whether the huge scale of gentrification is being undertaken speculatively and with leverage or whether its been comissioned privately, for cash, from LAST year's city bonus. And what would Shiller say about historical values, affordability et.al. after the continued run-ups? I'm not forecasting doom, for the restaurants remain full, and city is bubbling with life and wealth. Perhaps it will continue. But it is worth considering the impacts of deleveraging and US recession upon London Real estate, arguable the BEST asset class amongst its peers. For something that is leveraged, illiquid, with large bid-to-spreads that has doubled in the last year or two, and where lots of inventory is held by the specs for speculation, could just as easily see a quarter to a third taken right off the top, even before margin calls or negative equity kicked in. The rapidity with which residential values have compressed and transactions all but seized-up in some US markets is an awesome sight to behold. And the certainty with which that sees the market at this point in the cycle just smacks of classical overconfidence, and those exposed should, at the very least, take note.
Anecdotally, over the past few days, there seems to be a whole lot of flats empty & warehoused like that which I seen in my walks. I wonder if they are lereaged, and if so, by how much? I wonder whether the huge scale of gentrification is being undertaken speculatively and with leverage or whether its been comissioned privately, for cash, from LAST year's city bonus. And what would Shiller say about historical values, affordability et.al. after the continued run-ups? I'm not forecasting doom, for the restaurants remain full, and city is bubbling with life and wealth. Perhaps it will continue. But it is worth considering the impacts of deleveraging and US recession upon London Real estate, arguable the BEST asset class amongst its peers. For something that is leveraged, illiquid, with large bid-to-spreads that has doubled in the last year or two, and where lots of inventory is held by the specs for speculation, could just as easily see a quarter to a third taken right off the top, even before margin calls or negative equity kicked in. The rapidity with which residential values have compressed and transactions all but seized-up in some US markets is an awesome sight to behold. And the certainty with which that sees the market at this point in the cycle just smacks of classical overconfidence, and those exposed should, at the very least, take note.
Scrabbling for liquidity.
NR will possibly be bought out, but sooner or later there isn't going to be anyone left to do the buying.
http://www.boursorama.com/infos/actualites/detail_actu_marches.phtml?news=4609278
A la Bourse de Londres, l'action Northern Rock s'est effondrée de 31,5% vendredi. Elle avait déjà perdu près de 50% depuis le début de l'année. Parmi ses concurrents directs spécialistes du crédit immobilier, Alliance & Leicester a perdu 6,9%, Bradford & Bingley 7,7% et Paragon Group 16,8%. Tous les trois ont assuré n'avoir aucun besoin de financement immédiat.
Parmi ses concurrents directs spécialistes du crédit immobilier, Alliance & Leicester a perdu 6,9%, Bradford & Bingley 7,7% et Paragon Group 16,8%. Tous les trois ont assuré n'avoir aucun besoin de financement immédiat.
Next in line?
