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Alternatively we could use the Strong Law of Large Numbers (SLLN) to review the results.

The SLLN says that the average of a sample of a population becomes an increasingly good predictor of the true average of the population as the sample size increases, eventually reaching the true mean.

If we assume that the voting population of NH Dems is homogenous, regardless of voting method then the proportion of Obama voters should stay the same across hand counted and machine counted ballots, or that is what you would expect in a fair contest.

So the fact that the proportions exactly flip flopped is suspicious.

From the programming perspective it should be noted that flipping the candidate names is the easiest and least traceable method of stealing the election in the machine. It could be as easy doing a table or alteration.

by joel3000 on Mon Jan 14th, 2008 at 08:11:33 PM EST
Except that hand and machine counts are not sampling the same populations within the state. You would expect left-leaning local governments to resist Diebold machines and Republican-controlled local governments to be early adopters. So there you have a highly nonhomogeneous socioeconomic variable that varies across the state and 1) is plausibly a major predictor of the machine/hand distribution; 2) being a political variable, is plausibly correlated with the Clinton/Obama swing.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 15th, 2008 at 03:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So Hilary does better in more conservative/republican precincts?  Sounds like the best explanation yet.  That and the highly non-random concentration of Diebold machines in the South Eastern corner of NH.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Jan 15th, 2008 at 09:49:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is also where the population concentrates. Maybe for smaller precints, we have to take into account the closeness to larger precints (be it as inspiration or something).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 15th, 2008 at 11:04:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Check brfox [our new user, see upthread]'s second graph in this image file (which is too wide to post here).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 15th, 2008 at 11:07:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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