Controversial plans announced by Germany's conservatives to crack down on youth crime are beginning to have a detrimental effect on Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, according to opinion polls and Merkel herself. Two surveys showed that support for the conservatives had dipped, just two weeks before elections take place in the states of Hessen and Lower Saxony, widely regarded as tests of Merkel's popularity before a federal election in 2009. The Infratest-dimap and Forsa surveys both showed Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), dropping single points. Infratest stated that the conservatives were down one point at 39 percent while backing for their Social Democrat (SPD) rivals was up two points at 30 percent. Forsa also showed a one point decrease in popularity, putting the conservatives on a standing of 37 percent compared to a one-point gain for the SPD, whose support had been dwindling for months. Some observers claimed that the dip was an initial reaction to the plans put forward by Hessen Premier Roland Koch and that it was unlikely to have a long-term effect of the campaigns of Koch and fellow CDU incumbent Christian Wulff in Lower Saxony. Others said that the surveys signalled a potential defeat in each state election for the conservatives. Merkel admits coalition is badly split Meanwhile Chancellor Merkel admitted in an interview with the Die Welt newspaper published on Saturday that Germany's ruling coalition was split over proposals by her party to crack down on juvenile offenders.
Two surveys showed that support for the conservatives had dipped, just two weeks before elections take place in the states of Hessen and Lower Saxony, widely regarded as tests of Merkel's popularity before a federal election in 2009.
The Infratest-dimap and Forsa surveys both showed Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), dropping single points. Infratest stated that the conservatives were down one point at 39 percent while backing for their Social Democrat (SPD) rivals was up two points at 30 percent.
Forsa also showed a one point decrease in popularity, putting the conservatives on a standing of 37 percent compared to a one-point gain for the SPD, whose support had been dwindling for months.
Some observers claimed that the dip was an initial reaction to the plans put forward by Hessen Premier Roland Koch and that it was unlikely to have a long-term effect of the campaigns of Koch and fellow CDU incumbent Christian Wulff in Lower Saxony. Others said that the surveys signalled a potential defeat in each state election for the conservatives.
Merkel admits coalition is badly split
Meanwhile Chancellor Merkel admitted in an interview with the Die Welt newspaper published on Saturday that Germany's ruling coalition was split over proposals by her party to crack down on juvenile offenders.
YESSS!!!! The significance is not in the gains/losses reported, of course (one would think the journamalists had never heard of MoE), but in the fact that the juvenile-offender scaremongering is not gaining traction. This kind of bashing-type issue (always linked to some extent with xenophobia (some might prefer the term racism)) has been a major electioneering weapon in the arsenal of CDU/CSU in general and Hesse's Roland Koch in particular. And if it's not working... The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
