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Any bets on a hi-speeed trans-siberian in our lifetimes ?

Any news on the possibility of freight on hi-speed networks ? woulnd't that have serious track implications ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 02:44:32 PM EST
Do you mean high-speed or low-speed freight?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 02:58:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought it was long-distance fast freight to be carried on hi-speed lines overnight

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 03:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, so the second.

That idea was championed by the German Railways, and the first two lines were built accordingly. But the experience was negative, and entirely predictably so...

  • Most freight cars are brake shoe braked, and are built robust and simple anyway, so wheel blocking and thus wheeltread flattenings happen, which 'beat up' the rail -- roughing up its surface for high-speed trains.

  • There is only a short gap between the last and first high-speed services, not to mention the occasional depot run, so in practice high-speed trains and railfreight has to be allowed to run in parallel, in opposite directions. Now what happens if an open or light freight car is passed, at 400 km/h relative speed, especially in a tunnel? Either the cargo loaded could move or the car itself could derail (it happened).

  • What if a freight train is late, or worse, there is some technical problem (say a wheel/axle that ran hot) in the morning? Delays for the high-speed train.

  • Nothing bad happened in practice, but there is also the safety concern if say a gasoline-loaded tank car derails and burns in one of the long tunnels.

Now all of the above doesn't hold the bosses of many other railways back from believing mixed traffic makes a high-speed line more economically viable. (Holding back is the wrong word: they probably never heard of the precedent.) Now maybe for speeds until 250 km/h, that may be (barely) tolerable. But 350 km/h lines?...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 04:42:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... existing freight rolling stock. True HSR freight will require dedicated stock ... say, with mini-containers accepting Euro-pallets that lock into a HSFR car, and also into a frame to form a standard intermodal container. And also, substantially higher aviation fuel prices to be in a position to start stealing the lower margins of the air freight market.

Which suggests that the main game at the moment should be 110kph double / 160 kph single container Express freight. Its perfectly fine if that infrastructure is shared with regular Express passenger stopping services.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 05:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that is the second thing people may think of when they ask about freight on high-speed lines.

Further issues to consider:

  1. High-speed lines have an axle load of 17 tons (for the non-technical: that means that if a railcar has four axles, that is eight wheels with four on each side, then the entire car -- car + cargo - can't be heavier than 17x4=68 tons). Now freight transport is more economical if we go for higher axle-loads. Today in Europe, 20-22.5 tons is the norm, and there are pilot lines for 25 tons, while US railways even do 35 tons.

  2. Higher-speed transport is also higher energy use and thus higher transport costs.

  3. Even if for some types of time-sensitive cargo where the extra transport cost vs. trucks or low-speed rail may make it worth, and air cargo would be the rival, there is the issue of an as yet not wide network: you can't offer many destinations, the customer won't count on you.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 05:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(1) This is why regular intermodal containers are not a likely HSFR technology as such ... however, given greater flexibility to design the HSFR freight car to accomodate something that could fit into an intermodel container than air transport, something that can be rolled out of the HSFR and locked into an intermodal container (or visa versa) would give substantial logistical advantages over air freight

(2) And this, of course, is why the main target at the current point in time is getting Express freight out of trucks and onto Express freight rail, since the gain from HSFR is only if it shoots freight planes out of the sky.

(3) Goes back to (1) ... it has to integrate into the existing intermodal container system, and from my experience in working in the warehouse, a small enclosed mini-container is going to be the only serious option if the process is going to be largely automated.

But no hurry sorting out the details ... Express freight 110kph, 25 ton axle load / 160kph 21 ton axle load, that's the target currently in the frame, and that's just not at a speed that it can be seamlessly inserted into the HSR network.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 06:29:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why not using Eurostar-shuttle like trains, that allows for trucks to be loaded on trains at (relatively) high speed?

Trucks do not have a 35 ton/axle cargo! They have 35 tons cargo, and 5-6 axles...

In logistics, you could perhaps imagine a HSR line between two important nodes (like Paris/Lyon/Marseille in France), taking trucks on a no booking, shuttle basis so as to lower the community costs of road repairing - which is actually a government indirect subvention, at least in Europe-. Thus, road and train transport would compete on a same cost basis... which is conform to economic doxa.


A free fox in a free henhouse!

by Xavier in Paris on Tue Jan 22nd, 2008 at 06:05:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trucks do not have a 35 ton/axle cargo! They have 35 tons cargo, and 5-6 axles...

The axle loading is for the rail car ... and, yes, if there is a Freight Express rail clearway, with those axle loading

Designing a High Speed Freight Rail set that takes whole trucks is, for one thing, hauling weight around unnecessarily, magnifying the extra energy cost of HSFR over Express Freight Rail, and, for another thing, the job of trucks should be to haul a container the last mile to from the railhead to the final street address or warehouse ... the extension of the HSFR should be the load racking into a standard container to go to that closest railhead.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jan 22nd, 2008 at 09:42:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not get the point of using HSR for fret, except express fret that is going to be light enough to use normal HSR trains (La Poste has its own TGV).

Isn't it a bit counter productive to increase the energy use of cargo for transporting it at higher speed ? The speed problem, for cargo trains, at least in France, is lousy logistics, and there are much more gains to be made by improving those.

I might see that a private developer might want to increase the potential use of an High Speed Line, but that is a problem with having private developers doing rail infrastructure.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Jan 22nd, 2008 at 06:17:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... the lighter freight that can use ordinary HSR locomotives are a more appealing if they can be shipped out of the warehouse in sealed containers, like the standardized containers used for distinct models of aircraft for air freight, except that with HSFR there is an opportunity to develop it in a way that can smoothly and efficiently flow from standard inter-modal shipping containers to HSFR and back, to allow dependence on trucks to be minimize and even, in some cases with the right technology, eliminated altogether.

For example, Aerobus has a container by container freight transport option:



I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Tue Jan 22nd, 2008 at 12:42:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any bets on a hi-speeed trans-siberian in our lifetimes ?

My sobering projection, also taking potential future delays into account:

  1. just in Europe, we won't see national networks worth their name before 2020,
  2. the four main national networks (French, Spanish, Italian, German), which may become seven by then (Turkish, Russian, Scandinavian) may not integrate into a real pan-European network (with full-quality link-ups) before 2035...
  3. 400 km/h all the way to Beijing: maybe in 2050? But it's insane to project so long, who knows how railways, transport technology, economy, politics and society will look in half a century...


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 03:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here I disagre!!!!

At long last!!!

The four main networks will be all integrated by 2020.

i think it is really teh day most travel in europe wil be done my train... the key country is Italy.

portugal, netherlands, Spain, Frange, GB will eb ready for sure (maybe the ondon Scotland link will eb missing but other than that).

So if Italy finishes on time... 2020 is the date.. no need to wait until 2035....

Unless you include Sacandaniva and some easter coutnries.. then .. yes 2035 to get them onboard... maybe 2025 if they do a viable 200km/h network ...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 03:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no doubt that high-speed trains will run all across the borders. But I have grave doubts that they will do so at 300 km/h or even 250 km/h.

  • There might be a SPain/France link at Irún by 2020, but I doubt it: we can be happy if Bordeaux-Dax is kicked off in the early 2010s, and finished at the end of that decade. As for Perpignan-Montpellier, not even plans.

  • The French/BeNeLux and German networks would have three link-up points. But there are no German plans for a Düren-Aachen gap (would be short), Saarbrücken-Mannheim is only upgraded for 200 km/h and only in part (and full high-speed would require big tunnels), and the two railways are content with dozens of kilometres of 200 km/h or lower speed connections of their high-speed lines into Strasbourg, and not even thinking of a bypass.

  • Italy-Germany would require a full transsect of the Alps. On the Bologna-Verona-Innsbruck-Munich axis, nothing high-speed is planned, only the Brenner Base Tunnel, which won't turn a reality before 2020 itself. There could be a connection across Switzerland earlier, but the Swiss won't complete just the full Gotthard Axis (Zurich-Italian border) until the 2020s, and think onventional lines suffice for their purposes on the Basel-Zurich route. Now 250 km/h lines all the way from Basel to the Lötschberg Base Tunnel have a greater probability until 2020, but no plans for an Italian continuation including a second Simplon.

  • France-Italy: in effect, that's the Lyon-Turin line with the Mount d'Ambin Base Tunnel. With the delays thanks to Chirac et al, the base tunnel may open only in 2023, and even then, it is likely that the connecting lines won't be all high-speed (current italian plans are to leave passenger trains on the old line and build a line doubling in tunnels for freight).

Overall, note that for a high-speed line, ten years from start of planning to opening is often even optimistic.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 05:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HSR just isn't a viable proposition for trips over 1000 kilometres. Unless fuel for air travel becomes 20 times more expensive, I don't think we are ever going to see a HSR connection to China. We should be too happy if we ever get one to Moscow.

We need to spend more money on Trans-European Networks.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 04:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Transport Minister Calls for Train Travel Improvements

On Thursday, VR reported a record number of passengers last year. Nearly 67 million train trips were recorded, up by more than three percent. By far the largest volume was on commuter trains. Passenger rail travel to Russia went up by close to a fifth.


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 04:21:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, no.

Building an isolated line connecting destinations 1000 kilometre away is what's not viable, the airplane would win on market share. But, on one hand, in a network of connections between cities a few hundred kilometres away, routes thousands of kilometres could become possible. On the other hand, just as today there are passengers riding an express 10 hours or longer (not to mention the weeks on the Transsib), running high-speed trains over such longer routes would make extra trips possible. (Ii's a synergy: linking up two train services at one node will keep all the passengers on the two lines, and add ones who would have viewed changing trains at the node too much of a hassle or lost time.)

But this is the far far far future (if it comes at all), and for the question at hand, I only considered the existence of an Eurasia-spanning network,, not through services.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 04:27:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In my experience, what you describe here
in a network of connections between cities a few hundred kilometres away, routes thousands of kilometres could become possible

is not always done right. The international aspect of international train routes can be seriously degraded by too many domestic stops. All too logical: no city wants to be left out. But I guess I could have a 45 minute shorter trip to Amsterdam on the IC-International (now just over 6 hours) if Germany and the Netherlands just scrapped a few stations where only 10 people get on and off. Especially stops which are only a few kilometres in between.

On the other hand, I have to admit that it doesn't make much of a difference to me because I'm going to take that train anyway. So you have a point there.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 19th, 2008 at 08:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a few stations where only 10 people get on and off

What is your estimate, how many people take the Berlin-Amsterdam ICs all the way? My guess would be that they are outnumbered by the sum of domestic passengers, and don't add up to a full train-load (to sustain extra trains with less stops), even considering the extra attractivity of somewhat shorter trip times.

For you, this shucks, of course. But 5½ hours vs. 6¼ hours, that's less significant than say 2¾ hours vs. 4 hours, would there be high-speed lines all the way.

In short, with less stops and greater distances more rational for high-speed, international relations would be in the 'normal' range, and passengers with your kind of problem would be say Berlin-Moscow or Berlin-Madrid travellers.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 09:19:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All the way? Maybe 5%. Depends upon the time. One train on the line goes on to Szczecin, but I'd guess there is on average 0.5 passenger per train taking that all the way.

Now to take out some small city/town stops (from Amsterdam)

Hilversum - Amersfoort (14 minutes)
Apeldoorn - Deventer (11 minutes)
Almelo - Hengelo (11 minutes)
Stendal - Rathenow (15 minutes)
Berlin Spandau - Berlin Hbf (10 minutes)

Take out Hilversum, Apeldoorn, Almelo, Rathenow and Berlin Spandau, and you not only have a better international train, but also a better domestic intercity, IMO. Note that the intercity runs only every two hours on a track that also has a normal service. The few people in these minor cities and on connecting lines that may take the car rather than taking on 15 minutes of extra travel time should be compensated by people who do take the train rather than the car or airplane.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 10:08:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would like a Berlin - Moscow HSR train, but I can only see it work if it goes through Belarus. Unless something changes politically in Belarus, I don't see it happening.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 10:19:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Lukashenko will be dead before high-speed construction from Moscow resp. Berlin/Warshaw could progress so far, i.e. I think the political timescale os shorter here...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 10:58:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Note, for reference, this thread.

The Dutch, unfortunately, have scrapped the idea of a HSL Noord for now. I think it's rather stupid that we don't build an Amsterdam - Groningen - Bremen - Hamburg - Kiel - Copenhagen line as a priority project of the Trans European Networks.

With the existing HSL Zuid, we will have connected Europe's three largest ports (Antwerp - Rotterdam - Hamburg) within I would guess a 700-800 kilometre trip from Antwerp to Hamburg (as a quick reference Rotterdam is geographically 78 km from Antwerp and 414 km from Hamburg). There should be plenty business travel. Surely there must be an economic case.

To repeat myself, we need more money for TEN (and less for the CAP).

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 07:47:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How long would it take to go Copenhagen-Amsterdam with HSR?

I'm wondering because the Swedish HSR is supposed to end in Copenhagen...

Being able to take the train to Amsterdam from Stockholm  (in what, 6 hours?) would be GREAT.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 07:57:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can only guess at this (unless DoDo can find distances for the existing track). A Copenhagen - Amsterdam service would have stops in Odense (~ 150 km), pass by Kolding and Flensburg (maybe stops on a slower service), Kiel (at ~ 330 km) and Hamburg (~ 430 km). From Hamburg it should be another 460 - 500 km to Amsterdam, with stops in Bremen, Oldenburg, Groningen, (Assen, on a slower service), Zwolle, (Lelystad, on a slower service), Almere, and Amsterdam Zuid. So that is 790 - 830 kilometres and 9 stops from Copenhagen

Now the Amsterdam - Paris line is about 550 km in length, I think, and will have 6 stops from Amsterdam Zuid with a travel time of 2:57. I'd guess you should take 1.5 times that travel time, so you would have a 4:30 hour trip, with Amsterdam - Hamburg at 2:30 hours. If we build a dedicated HSR. I'd guess Stockholm - Copenhagen will be 2 hours?

With the existing plan, there should be a 200 km/h connection between Amsterdam and Hamburg over Amersfoort, Hengelo, Osnabrück, Bremen somewhere maybe in 2015. That should be about a ~ 4 hour trip (currently the fastest connection is 5:15 hours).

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 09:11:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If bold, let's be really bold: envision the high-speed connection along the Vogelfluglinie (via Lübeck), with the long-planned Fehmarn crossing. That would be around 330 km until Hamburg. Hamburg-Bremen is currently 115.6 km, Bremen-Groningen would be around 170 km, HSL Noord again around 170 km.

As for times, if I am optimistic, with stopping times: Copenhagen-Hamburg 1h20m, on to Bremen 40m, on to Groningen 50m, on to Amsterdam 50m, 3h40m total. If I am less optimistic about just how through the true high-speed lines would become (e.g. longer upgraded/four-tracked sections along the way, near cities and in a Fehmarn tunnel): 2h, 50m, 1h10m, 1h, together 5h. (Note: Paris-Amsterdam on upgraded conventional line from Brussels to Antwerp, and again Schipol-Amsterdam C).

Stockholm-Copenhagen would be roughly 550 km, so your two hours for a true high-speed service sound realistic. (Currently: more than five hours...)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 10:15:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fehmarn belt bridge is going to be built, that's decided. The Swedish HSR program will not be built before 2020, if business is as usual, but with PO coming, it won't be and I am hoping for earlier construction.

There have been some very postive signs during the last year or two.

I should probably do a diary on it, as the project has the fitting name Europakorridoren, the European Corridor.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 10:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fehmarn belt bridge is going to be built, that's decided.

That's not how it works.

With such big projects, the decision that really matters is the start of the main construction tenders.

When the 'decision' is a joint government or even EU-level declaration, that can be drawn out indefinitely, with repeated joint declarations that now we really mean business. Or worse, the decisionmakers might be only willing to pay for preliminary studies, and sell those as the start of the project, but then solicit ever more studies (an example: Brenner Base Tunnel). Even when the decision is tendering the detailed plans, that may be followed up by several plan modifications, or disputes over the price tag that may delay the construction tender (example: Malmö city tunnel), even indefinitely.

I should probably do a diary on it

You should!

(And with the political boundaries clearly drawn, I'd be curious at contrarian comments from other ETers versed in Swedish politics ;-) )

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jan 20th, 2008 at 10:44:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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