From 1979 to 1999 Oil went down from 100 to $10 a barrel in inflation adjusted terms.  There may be some adjustment down for a while now if recession really hits and supply exceed demand.  Much of the demand growth is in the developing world which can least afford current prices and thus will be very price sensitive.  The danger is that such a temporary price fall will lead to reduced emphasis on alternatives.  Its always difficult to predict a turning point but we must beware making the argument for peak oil just on price trends.  Prices could well come down quite a bit before the next long haul up to a much higher peak.

Index of Frank's Diaries