Peak no evil (...) Even if the world's total amount of oil can be established - estimates vary wildly - better technology means the proportion that can be pumped out increases over time. Since 1980, this has risen, on average, from a fifth to more than a third, boosting recoverable reserves. In spite of rising consumption, the ratio of oil reserves to output has been pretty constant since the late 1980s. Today's high oil prices also make complex sources, such as oil sands, viable and damp consumption. Oil output is not just a function of geology. "Surface" factors such as Opec have a huge impact. Indeed, geopolitics and environmental concerns provide enough reasons to curb dependence on oil for transportation. If the noise generated by the peak oil debate adds to the sense of urgency in addressing this, it will serve some useful purpose.
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Even if the world's total amount of oil can be established - estimates vary wildly - better technology means the proportion that can be pumped out increases over time. Since 1980, this has risen, on average, from a fifth to more than a third, boosting recoverable reserves. In spite of rising consumption, the ratio of oil reserves to output has been pretty constant since the late 1980s. Today's high oil prices also make complex sources, such as oil sands, viable and damp consumption.
Oil output is not just a function of geology. "Surface" factors such as Opec have a huge impact. Indeed, geopolitics and environmental concerns provide enough reasons to curb dependence on oil for transportation. If the noise generated by the peak oil debate adds to the sense of urgency in addressing this, it will serve some useful purpose.
Oil was not made by the market, and ultimately no amount of demand is going to make new oil once its all we've burnt it all up. It's the very essence of what Karl Polanyi said in the Great Transformation. Land is a fictitious commodity, oil was not created by the market, and eventually there's just not going to be enough oil. And this is true of most other commodities as well. The market doesn't make them, so it just doesn't make sense to pretend that it does. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
And anyway, in the long run... Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
The market doesn't make them, so it just doesn't make sense to pretend that it does.
From the perspective of understanding what is going on around us, it doesn't make sense to pretend that fictitious commodities are products of the market in either the long term or the short term. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Oil output is not just a function of geology.
No, of course not. But it seems to dance around the fact that if we can solve the other functions influencing output, the geological finity to oil will also disappear in a puff of happy smoke...
